European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

Recordati: Minority Opposition Puts €51.29 Under Pressure

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Respighi raised its offer from €51.29 to €53 and extended it to 23 October after the original price attracted almost no independent minority acceptances.</li>
<li>Despite the “best and final” language, we retain a 10–15% probability of another increase; our conditional expected consideration is €53.31.</li>
<li>At €53.10 we move from Bullish to Neutral, but would hold existing positions and buy on weakness below approximately €52.50 absent adverse deal news.</li>
</ul>


Respighi raised its offer from €51.29 to €53 and extended it to 23 October after the original price attracted almost no independent minority acceptances.
Despite the “best and final” language, we retain a 10–15% probability of another increase; our conditional expected consideration is €53.31.
At €53.10 we move from Bullish to Neutral, but would hold existing positions and buy on weakness below approximately €52.50 absent adverse deal news.


CVC & GBL / Recordati: A Higher Dose for the Holdouts