European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

CVC & GBL / Recordati: A Higher Dose for the Holdouts

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Only 0.366m shares beyond Rossini's committed stake have been tendered, despite the offer ending on 15 October. Minority participation at €51.29 remains negligible.</li>
<li>CVC/GBL could reach 56.79% after physical settlement of the TRS, leaving them needing only 22.87% of remaining shares to secure two-thirds control.</li>
<li>We assign a 65% probability to an increased offer and derive a probability-weighted value of €55.07/share, 4.6% above the 15 September close.</li>
</ul>


Only 0.366m shares beyond Rossini's committed stake have been tendered, despite the offer ending on 15 October. Minority participation at €51.29 remains negligible.
CVC/GBL could reach 56.79% after physical settlement of the TRS, leaving them needing only 22.87% of remaining shares to secure two-thirds control.
We assign a 65% probability to an increased offer and derive a probability-weighted value of €55.07/share, 4.6% above the 15 September close.


Recordati: Minority Opposition Puts €51.29 Under Pressure