Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Recruit Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Recruit has announced a share buy-back on Friday of 34.0m shares (2.06% of outstanding shares) for JPY155.8bn, implying JPY4,581 per share.</li>
<li>Recruit’s shares closed at JPY5,090 per share at the end of Thursday’s close, and following the announcement, shares moved up to JPY5,305 a piece, gaining 4.2%.</li>
<li>We think Recruit’s shares will be a good Short over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


Recruit has announced a share buy-back on Friday of 34.0m shares (2.06% of outstanding shares) for JPY155.8bn, implying JPY4,581 per share.
Recruit’s shares closed at JPY5,090 per share at the end of Thursday’s close, and following the announcement, shares moved up to JPY5,305 a piece, gaining 4.2%.
We think Recruit’s shares will be a good Short over the next few days.


Recruit Buyback: An Attempt to Rescue Falling Share Price; Seems Like a Good Short

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> saw very strong demand for its mega US$10bn+ IPO.</li>
<li>While other IPO markets were in torpor, a number of placements continued to flow in.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) saw very strong demand for its mega US$10bn+ IPO.
While other IPO markets were in torpor, a number of placements continued to flow in.


ECM Weekly (16th Jan 2022) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Nippon Paint, Sunac, JL Mag, JREITs

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The consortium’s updated transaction has lowered the offer price -27.6% to $57.25 in cash per ADS, a 24.92% premium to the last trading price (11 January 2022).</li>
<li>The combination of the dramatically lower price, spurious justification for lowering the price and the shares recently trading higher than the revised price is unlikely to win over minorities.</li>
<li>Meeting the two-thirds shareholder approval threshold is likely a challenge due to the need to convince around 27% of disinterested shareholders to vote in favour of the transaction. </li>
</ul>


The consortium’s updated transaction has lowered the offer price -27.6% to $57.25 in cash per ADS, a 24.92% premium to the last trading price (11 January 2022).
The combination of the dramatically lower price, spurious justification for lowering the price and the shares recently trading higher than the revised price is unlikely to win over minorities.
Meeting the two-thirds shareholder approval threshold is likely a challenge due to the need to convince around 27% of disinterested shareholders to vote in favour of the transaction. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Not an overreaction after all. After shares closed down 19.2% on the 8 November, 20% adrift of indicative terms, that appeared overdone.</li>
<li>Now <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc (JOBS US)</a></strong> has announced the Offeror has proposed reducing the merger consideration from US$79.05 in cash per common share to US$57.25.</li>
<li>Shares closed up, but still at a 14.5% gross spread to terms. The new construct, and the reasons for doing so, are decidedly baffling.</li>
</ul>


Not an overreaction after all. After shares closed down 19.2% on the 8 November, 20% adrift of indicative terms, that appeared overdone.
Now 51 Job Inc (JOBS US) has announced the Offeror has proposed reducing the merger consideration from US$79.05 in cash per common share to US$57.25.
Shares closed up, but still at a 14.5% gross spread to terms. The new construct, and the reasons for doing so, are decidedly baffling.


Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

ECM Weekly (16th Jan 2022) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Nippon Paint, Sunac, JL Mag, JREITs

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

51job’s Lowered Privatisation Bid

The consortium has lowered the offer price -27.6% to $57.25 in cash per ADS. Meeting the 2/3rd approval threshold is likely a challenge as it...

Arun George

51job (JOB US): 27.6% Reduction In Terms

Trading at a gross/ spread of 14.5%. It is not clear how the new construct solves the regulatory issues. Avoid for now. This remains an indicative...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Recruit Buyback: An Attempt to Rescue Falling Share Price; Seems Like a Good Short

Recruit announced a share buy-back on Friday of 34.0m shares (2.06% of outstanding shares) for JPY155.8bn, implying JPY4,581 per share. Recruit’s...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

ECM Weekly (16th Jan 2022) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Nippon Paint, Sunac, JL Mag, JREITs

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

51job’s Lowered Privatisation Bid

The consortium has lowered the offer price -27.6% to $57.25 in cash per ADS. Meeting the 2/3rd approval threshold is likely a challenge as it...

Arun George

51job (JOB US): 27.6% Reduction In Terms

Trading at a gross/ spread of 14.5%. It is not clear how the new construct solves the regulatory issues. Avoid for now. This remains an indicative...

David Blennerhassett