IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> have dropped their merger plans. Instead, GMD will acquire SBM’s Leonora gold assets for a total consideration of A$600 million.</li>
<li>The transaction is favourable for GMD shareholders. GMD is getting the assets at an attractive price. GMD will fund the acquisition through a A$450 million placement at A$1.15 per share.</li>
<li>The transaction provides a way out for long-suffering SBM shareholders as they retain exposure to gold assets and have option value on the sale of SBM’s remaining assets.</li>
</ul>



Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) and St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) have dropped their merger plans. Instead, GMD will acquire SBM’s Leonora gold assets for a total consideration of A$600 million.
The transaction is favourable for GMD shareholders. GMD is getting the assets at an attractive price. GMD will fund the acquisition through a A$450 million placement at A$1.15 per share.
The transaction provides a way out for long-suffering SBM shareholders as they retain exposure to gold assets and have option value on the sale of SBM’s remaining assets.


Genesis Minerals (GMD AU): Alternate Transaction and Placement to Buy St Barbara’s Key Assets

Golden Energy and Resources / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>’s valuation is dependent on three key assets – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> and Ravenswood. GEMS/SMR have observable values.</li>
<li>The valuation of GEAR's 50% stake in Ravenswood gets little publicity largely as it is unlisted. However, the annual report provides data points to value this key gold asset. </li>
<li>Based on peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples, Ravenswood 50% stake is worth S$200-465 million. Using the midpoint valuation, the SoTP valuation is S$1.40 (39% upside to the last close).</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)’s valuation is dependent on three key assets – Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) and Ravenswood. GEMS/SMR have observable values.
The valuation of GEAR's 50% stake in Ravenswood gets little publicity largely as it is unlisted. However, the annual report provides data points to value this key gold asset. 
Based on peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples, Ravenswood 50% stake is worth S$200-465 million. Using the midpoint valuation, the SoTP valuation is S$1.40 (39% upside to the last close).


Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. </li>
<li>The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. </li>
<li>The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.</li>
</ul>



St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. 
The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. 
The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.


Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic</li>
<li>No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016</li>
<li>5-year forecast for uranium demand to decelerate due to growth in decommissioning </li>
<li>Est. prices &lt;US$20/lb U3O8 within the next several years to restore mkt equilibrium</li>
<li>Despite low inventories, non-critical nature of Zn depresses prices</li>
<li>Political pressure increasing against NPI mining in Indonesia and Philippines</li>
<li>Indonesia and Philippines account for ~40% of global Ni supply</li>
<li>Ni consumption predicted to grow at 4.7% CAGR over the next few years</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nac-kazatomprom-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27845:1" rel="noopener">NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cameco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25364:1" rel="noopener">Cameco Corp (CCO CN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yellow-cake-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1" rel="noopener">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peel-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1" rel="noopener">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-rim-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8395:1" rel="noopener">Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focus-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1" rel="noopener">Focus Minerals (FML AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jameson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1923:1" rel="noopener">Jameson Resources (JAL AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacifico-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11085:1" rel="noopener">Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausmex-mining-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11167:1" rel="noopener">Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI), Venturex (ASX: VRX), Saturn Minerals (ASX: STN), Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA), Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) </a>
</li>
</ul>


Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic
No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016
5-year forecast for uranium demand to decelerate due to growth in decommissioning 
Est. prices &lt;US$20/lb U3O8 within the next several years to restore mkt equilibrium
Despite low inventories, non-critical nature of Zn depresses prices
Political pressure increasing against NPI mining in Indonesia and Philippines
Indonesia and Philippines account for ~40% of global Ni supply
Ni consumption predicted to grow at 4.7% CAGR over the next few years

NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI), Cameco Corp (CCO CN), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Jameson Resources (JAL AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI), Venturex (ASX: VRX), Saturn Minerals (ASX: STN), Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA), Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) 



New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 2 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

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<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> Recommend BUY
</li>
<li>Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget</li>
<li>150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219</li>
<li>
Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419</li>
<li>
Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt</li>
<li>Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) </li>
<li>A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity</li>
<li>Corporate takeover target likely by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10152" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10152:1">Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12743" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12743:1">Southern Gold (SAU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10577" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1">Focus Minerals (FML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14492:1">Oklo Resources (OKU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7940" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14062:1">Troy Resources (TRY AU)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY

Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget
150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219

Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419

Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt
Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) 
A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity
Corporate takeover target likely by Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Southern Gold (SAU AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Oklo Resources (OKU AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Troy Resources (TRY AU)



New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

Australia

Red 5 Limited is a minieral exploration and development company. The Company's principal asset is the Siana Gold Project in the Philippines held under a Mineral Production Sharing Agreement by a Red5 Philippine compliant company. Red 5's second asset is the Mapawa MPSA, located north of Siana.

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Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU): Alternate Transaction and Placement to Buy St Barbara’s Key Assets

The alternative transaction is a good result for GMD (transformative acquisition at an attractive price) and SBM (a palatable plan to generate...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

The annual report released today provides data points to value the largely ignored Ravenswood gold asset. GEAR's 50% Ravenswood stake is worth...

Arun George

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX...

Arun George

New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 2 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016 5-year...

Gaius King

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget 150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR,...

Boost Research

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