Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

Ram Essential Services Prope / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A global perspective on what happened overnight</li>
</ul>


A global perspective on what happened overnight


The Overnight Report: FOMO Is Back (Nvidia Too)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You could see this coming. With due diligence expected to close on the 15th May, Bain has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250514/pdf/06jq3sqhyp56bp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notified</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> it won't proceed due to macro uncertainties. </li>
<li>Discussions remain ongoing with CC Capital. No fixed timeline on those talks, although it appears negotiations will extend beyond the 15th May.</li>
<li>NBIOs were not an ideal place to hide amid Trump’s trade war. They still aren't. Insignia is down 14.9% as I type.</li>
</ul>


You could see this coming. With due diligence expected to close on the 15th May, Bain has notified  Insignia Financial (IFL AU) it won't proceed due to macro uncertainties. 
Discussions remain ongoing with CC Capital. No fixed timeline on those talks, although it appears negotiations will extend beyond the 15th May.
NBIOs were not an ideal place to hide amid Trump’s trade war. They still aren't. Insignia is down 14.9% as I type.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Walks Due To "Macro Uncertainty". CC Capital's Still In. For Now

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 7 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.</li>
<li>The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.</li>
</ul>


On 7 March, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.
The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. 
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital and CC Capital have both <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250307/pdf/06gc4zf37b64vx.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> indicative terms to $5/share,  a 63% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>’s undisturbed closing share price of $3.06 on December 11 2024.</li>
<li>Both suitors have been granted four weeks of exclusivity. Confirmatory due diligence is expected to be completed within six weeks. IFL's board is supportive at A$5/share or more. </li>
<li>
Where's Brookfield on all this? A local media source previously reported that at least one suitor was losing interest. </li>
</ul>


Bain Capital and CC Capital have both bumped indicative terms to $5/share,  a 63% premium to Insignia Financial (IFL AU)’s undisturbed closing share price of $3.06 on December 11 2024.
Both suitors have been granted four weeks of exclusivity. Confirmatory due diligence is expected to be completed within six weeks. IFL's board is supportive at A$5/share or more. 

Where's Brookfield on all this? A local media source previously reported that at least one suitor was losing interest. 


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing a few days left in the review period, there could be 39 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Except for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> that is heavily tracked, the performance of the forecast changes to the other indices has been very stable with adds outperforming deletes bigly.</li>
</ul>


Nearing a few days left in the review period, there could be 39 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Except for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that is heavily tracked, the performance of the forecast changes to the other indices has been very stable with adds outperforming deletes bigly.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

Australia

Regal Partners Limited operates as an investment management company. The Company invests in listed securities, as well as focuses on capital preservation. Regal Partners serves customers worldwide.

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Regal Partners (RPL AU)

The Overnight Report: FOMO Is Back (Nvidia Too)

A global perspective on what happened overnight

FNArena

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Walks Due To "Macro Uncertainty". CC Capital's Still In. For Now

The undisturbed price is ~A$3.06/share. For long-onlies, you could take advantage of the share price weakness. This is not the place to hide for...

David Blennerhassett

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. The presence of two bidders increases the...

Arun George

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms

Both Offers remain non-binding. IFL is engaged and supportive. Trading at a 5%/11.8% gross/annualised spread assuming a five month off-ramp. I...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

There could be 39 changes for the S&P/ASX family in March. The forecast adds continue to outperform the forecast deletes in all indices. Huge...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Overnight Report: FOMO Is Back (Nvidia Too)

A global perspective on what happened overnight

FNArena

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Walks Due To "Macro Uncertainty". CC Capital's Still In. For Now

The undisturbed price is ~A$3.06/share. For long-onlies, you could take advantage of the share price weakness. This is not the place to hide for...

David Blennerhassett

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. The presence of two bidders increases the...

Arun George

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms

Both Offers remain non-binding. IFL is engaged and supportive. Trading at a 5%/11.8% gross/annualised spread assuming a five month off-ramp. I...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

There could be 39 changes for the S&P/ASX family in March. The forecast adds continue to outperform the forecast deletes in all indices. Huge...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly