Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.</li>
<li>We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.</li>
<li>The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.</li>
</ul>


The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.
We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.
The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.


Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Leading mRNA vaccine producers announced plans to build manufacturing facilities in Africa this year. </li>
<li>According to Reuters, Rwanda, Senegal, or South Africa may be potential locations for Moderna’s new vaccine factory.</li>
<li>Africa has the world’s lowest vaccination rate, and only ~5% of Africans are fully vaccinated today. </li>
</ul>


Leading mRNA vaccine producers announced plans to build manufacturing facilities in Africa this year. 
According to Reuters, Rwanda, Senegal, or South Africa may be potential locations for Moderna’s new vaccine factory.
Africa has the world’s lowest vaccination rate, and only ~5% of Africans are fully vaccinated today. 


Why Moderna And BioNTech Want To Boost Production Capacities In Africa?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Chugai’s in-house drug, Actemra is recommended by the WHO for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In-licensed drug Ronapreve is approved for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 patients.</li>
<li>Actemra and Ronapreve together are expected to contribute 29% of total revenue in 2021. Approval of oral COVID-19 anti-viral pill will pressurize both the drugs in 2022 and beyond.</li>
<li>Chugai’s recently in-licensed gene therapy drug candidate for Duchenne muscular dystrophy will have to compete with existing drug and other pipeline candidates in Japan.  </li>
</ul>


Chugai’s in-house drug, Actemra is recommended by the WHO for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In-licensed drug Ronapreve is approved for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 patients.
Actemra and Ronapreve together are expected to contribute 29% of total revenue in 2021. Approval of oral COVID-19 anti-viral pill will pressurize both the drugs in 2022 and beyond.
Chugai’s recently in-licensed gene therapy drug candidate for Duchenne muscular dystrophy will have to compete with existing drug and other pipeline candidates in Japan.  


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> received CRL from the FDA for TAK-721, through which FDA declined to approve the drug in its current form and asked for additional clinical study.</li>
<li>Takeda aimed for four potential approvals in FY22. Thus far, the company has received only two approvals. R&amp;D expenditure for FY22 is guided at ¥522 billion, up 15% y/y.</li>
<li>Next big catalyst for the company is the potential approval of its Dengue vaccine candidate, TAK-003, which has peak revenue opportunity of $1.6 billion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) received CRL from the FDA for TAK-721, through which FDA declined to approve the drug in its current form and asked for additional clinical study.
Takeda aimed for four potential approvals in FY22. Thus far, the company has received only two approvals. R&amp;D expenditure for FY22 is guided at ¥522 billion, up 15% y/y.
Next big catalyst for the company is the potential approval of its Dengue vaccine candidate, TAK-003, which has peak revenue opportunity of $1.6 billion.


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Bearish Tone Continues Despite New Drug Approvals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nektar-therapeutics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15060:1" rel="noopener">Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US)</a> is a global biopharmaceutical company, with major focus on immune-oncology. Its lead candidate bempeg is the near-term growth engine for the company.</li>
<li>On December 6, Nektar presented favorable results for Bempeg plus Keytruda in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. Bempeg is poised for getting approvals for multiple indications during 2023–2025.</li>
<li>Clinical trial progress of other late-stage programs remains long-term growth driver for Nektar. Buyout deal at a premium presents another upside opportunity for Nektar.</li>
</ul>



Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US) is a global biopharmaceutical company, with major focus on immune-oncology. Its lead candidate bempeg is the near-term growth engine for the company.
On December 6, Nektar presented favorable results for Bempeg plus Keytruda in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. Bempeg is poised for getting approvals for multiple indications during 2023–2025.
Clinical trial progress of other late-stage programs remains long-term growth driver for Nektar. Buyout deal at a premium presents another upside opportunity for Nektar.


Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US): A Good Buying Option in Immuno-Oncology Therapeutic Area

United States

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes pharmaceutical products for the treatment of serious medical conditions. The Company has therapeutic candidates in clinical trials for the potential treatment of cancer, eye diseases, and inflammatory diseases, and has preclinical programs in other diseases and disorders.

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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN US)

Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

The short-term bullish reversal that we referenced last week is officially underway now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are...

Vermilion Research

Why Moderna And BioNTech Want To Boost Production Capacities In Africa?

We believe the new Moderna's mRNA facility in Africa may help the biotech company boost market share in the EMEA region.

Andrei Zakharov

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

Chugai's COVID-19 drugs do not seem to be stack up well against the newly approved oral COVID-19 drugs in 2022 and beyond. The company has already...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Bearish Tone Continues Despite New Drug Approvals

The bear case thesis of patent cliff and pipeline blues still hold good for the company. However, long-term fundamental growth story of the company...

Tina Banerjee

Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US): A Good Buying Option in Immuno-Oncology Therapeutic Area

Nektar presented favorable clinical data for its lead candidate, bempeg at a global healthcare conference recently. Bempeg, a potential blockbuster...

Tina Banerjee

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