Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aside from Trump’s tariff policies, Mexican banks are under pressure from government to deliver on more competitive lending rates, with fintech challengers Nubank and MercadoLibre’s MercadoPago gaining traction in Mexico</li>
<li>Despite these challenges, 1Q25 results were sound and the bank sector participated in Mexican bolsa rally in April; yet we believe there is selective attractive value there</li>
<li>We apply our scorecard – which assesses balance sheet strength, returns, credit quality and valuations – that is weighted to arrive at our investment picks; BanBajio and BanRegio stand out</li>
</ul>


Aside from Trump’s tariff policies, Mexican banks are under pressure from government to deliver on more competitive lending rates, with fintech challengers Nubank and MercadoLibre’s MercadoPago gaining traction in Mexico
Despite these challenges, 1Q25 results were sound and the bank sector participated in Mexican bolsa rally in April; yet we believe there is selective attractive value there
We apply our scorecard – which assesses balance sheet strength, returns, credit quality and valuations – that is weighted to arrive at our investment picks; BanBajio and BanRegio stand out


Mexican Banks – Looking Beyond Trump Policies, We See Value in Smaller Caps

<ul>
<li>We close out our long position on BanBajio as the share price has rallied since July-end and in particular the PE multiple gap has narrowed versus its peers</li>
<li>In terms of PBV ratio, BanBajio’s discount to Banorte has also narrowed and it is now very close to the average discount over the last eighteen months</li>
<li>We expect other fundamental factors to act as a drag on BanBajio’s share price performance versus its peers; its rising cost of risk trends and its eroding net interest margin</li>
</ul>


We close out our long position on BanBajio as the share price has rallied since July-end and in particular the PE multiple gap has narrowed versus its peers
In terms of PBV ratio, BanBajio’s discount to Banorte has also narrowed and it is now very close to the average discount over the last eighteen months
We expect other fundamental factors to act as a drag on BanBajio’s share price performance versus its peers; its rising cost of risk trends and its eroding net interest margin


BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM), Time to Close Out the Long Position

<ul>
<li>We stick with our pairs trade long on BanBajio and short on Banorte; we remove BanRegio from buy, as we do not see it to be so compelling on valuations</li>
<li>BanBajio stands out versus both Banorte and Gentera in terms of its PBV ratio discount; in both cases, BanBajio’s PBV discount is c 40%</li>
<li>Based on our updated propietary scorecard, BanBajio remains top with Inbursa bottom of the ranking</li>
</ul>


We stick with our pairs trade long on BanBajio and short on Banorte; we remove BanRegio from buy, as we do not see it to be so compelling on valuations
BanBajio stands out versus both Banorte and Gentera in terms of its PBV ratio discount; in both cases, BanBajio’s PBV discount is c 40%
Based on our updated propietary scorecard, BanBajio remains top with Inbursa bottom of the ranking


Mexican Banks – BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM) Remains the Value Play

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We examine key balance sheet ratios of the Latam banks looking into liquidity, credit quality and capital adequacy, at a time of investor nervousness and concern</li>
<li>Based on our screening, our positive value picks are Bradesco and BanColombia, with Banco de Chile, BanBajio and BanRegio composing our positive high quality picks</li>
<li>Our bearish picks are Banorte and BCI; Banorte is strong in terms of capital adequacy and credit quality, but is exposed in terms of its big securities portfolio</li>
</ul>


We examine key balance sheet ratios of the Latam banks looking into liquidity, credit quality and capital adequacy, at a time of investor nervousness and concern
Based on our screening, our positive value picks are Bradesco and BanColombia, with Banco de Chile, BanBajio and BanRegio composing our positive high quality picks
Our bearish picks are Banorte and BCI; Banorte is strong in terms of capital adequacy and credit quality, but is exposed in terms of its big securities portfolio


LatAm Banks – Liquidity, Solvency and Credit Quality in Focus in a Crisis

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Mexico

Regional SAB de CV provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, mortgage lending, auto finance, and other banking services. Regional serves customers in Mexico.

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Regional SAB de CV (RA MM)

Mexican Banks – Looking Beyond Trump Policies, We See Value in Smaller Caps

Mexican banks face pressure from government and fintech challengers, but show strong results and selective value; based on our proprietary...

Victor Galliano

BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM), Time to Close Out the Long Position

Closing long position on BanBajio due to share price rally, narrowing PE multiple and PBV ratio gap with peers. Share price outlook impacted by...

Victor Galliano

Mexican Banks – BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM) Remains the Value Play

We keep our pairs trade long on scorecard top-rated BanBajio and short on Banorte, removing BanRegio from the buy list. BanBajio's PBV ratio...

Victor Galliano

LatAm Banks – Liquidity, Solvency and Credit Quality in Focus in a Crisis

Focus on LatAm banks liquidity, solvency and credit quality; we like Bradesco and BanColombia as value plays with Banco de Chile, BanBajio &...

Victor Galliano

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mexican Banks – Looking Beyond Trump Policies, We See Value in Smaller Caps

​Mexican banks face pressure from government and fintech challengers, but show strong results and selective value; based on our proprietary...

Victor Galliano

BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM), Time to Close Out the Long Position

​Closing long position on BanBajio due to share price rally, narrowing PE multiple and PBV ratio gap with peers. Share price outlook impacted by...

Victor Galliano

Mexican Banks – BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM) Remains the Value Play

​We keep our pairs trade long on scorecard top-rated BanBajio and short on Banorte, removing BanRegio from the buy list. BanBajio's PBV ratio...

Victor Galliano

LatAm Banks – Liquidity, Solvency and Credit Quality in Focus in a Crisis

Focus on LatAm banks liquidity, solvency and credit quality; we like Bradesco and BanColombia as value plays with Banco de Chile, BanBajio &...

Victor Galliano

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Mexican banks face pressure from government and fintech challengers, but show strong results and selective value; based on our proprietary...

Closing long position on BanBajio due to share price rally, narrowing PE multiple and PBV ratio gap with peers. Share price outlook impacted by...

We keep our pairs trade long on scorecard top-rated BanBajio and short on Banorte, removing BanRegio from the buy list. BanBajio's PBV ratio...