Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th March 2026.</li>
<li>There are 25 ADDs and 18 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300. Most of them were in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th March 2026.
There are 25 ADDs and 18 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300. Most of them were in line with our expectations.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.


Quiddity ASX Mar26 Results: 43 Changes; Some Surprises; US$1.34bn Total One-Way Flows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are some big capping changes too.</li>
<li>With float estimated at less than 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s wait for index inclusion continues. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are some big capping changes too.
With float estimated at less than 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s wait for index inclusion continues. Gold Fields (GFI US) currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.
The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.
If Gold Fields (GFI US) outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.
The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Cleanaway Waste Management / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals weres discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-unitrust-international-financial-leasing-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28044:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xin-yuan-enterprises-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40062:1" rel="noopener">Xin Yuan Enterprises (1748 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transpacific-industries-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19885:1" rel="noopener">Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baudroie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44459:1" rel="noopener">Baudroie (4413 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals weres discussed on Smartkarma this week: Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK) and Xin Yuan Enterprises (1748 HK).
Key updates/news also took place on: Ingenia Communities (INA AU), Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU), Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), and Baudroie (4413 JP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Haitong Unitrust, Xin Yuan Enterprise, Ingenia, Vault, Cleanaway, Baudroie

Australia

Regis Resources Ltd. is a mineral exploration and production company. The Company mines for gold, nickel, and copper.

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Regis Resources (RRL AU)

Quiddity ASX Mar26 Results: 43 Changes; Some Surprises; US$1.34bn Total One-Way Flows

We expected 39 changes in total and 35 of them were correct. That translates to an accuracy of ~90% for our predictions. However, there were 43...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

There could be 6 adds and big capping changes for the GDX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.5% and round-trip trade is US$6.7bn. Some of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

There could be 3 adds for the index in March. Coincidentally, all 3 are potential ASX100 adds. Gold Fields is one to watch out for since...

Brian Freitas

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Haitong Unitrust, Xin Yuan Enterprise, Ingenia, Vault, Cleanaway, Baudroie

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Quiddity ASX Mar26 Results: 43 Changes; Some Surprises; US$1.34bn Total One-Way Flows

We expected 39 changes in total and 35 of them were correct. That translates to an accuracy of ~90% for our predictions. However, there were 43...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

There could be 6 adds and big capping changes for the GDX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.5% and round-trip trade is US$6.7bn. Some of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

There could be 3 adds for the index in March. Coincidentally, all 3 are potential ASX100 adds. Gold Fields is one to watch out for since...

Brian Freitas

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Haitong Unitrust, Xin Yuan Enterprise, Ingenia, Vault, Cleanaway, Baudroie

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact