Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Real interest rates moving lower together with massively increasing fiscal deficits is a plus for gold.</li>
<li>Gold miners are generally poor long-term investments, but their time is close.</li>
<li>Miners’ margins are improving as revenue increases while costs decrease.</li>
</ul>


Real interest rates moving lower together with massively increasing fiscal deficits is a plus for gold.
Gold miners are generally poor long-term investments, but their time is close.
Miners’ margins are improving as revenue increases while costs decrease.


2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gold fever continues Down Under as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausgold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1" rel="noopener">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a> enters into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.</li>
<li>Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.</li>
</ul>


Gold fever continues Down Under as Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) enters into a Scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN).
OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.
Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.


OceanaGold (OGC CN) Claims Ausgold (AUC AU). Clean Deal

<ul>
<li>For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.
</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd-d0081203-96cd-4335-92ed-3b4cb7733dc6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38564:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Energy (WDS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers (WES AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group (REA AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Woodside Energy (WDS US), Wesfarmers (WES AU), and REA Group (REA AU).


Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]:  Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 17th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 17th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 17th): Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria

Australia

Regis Resources Ltd. is a mineral exploration and production company. The Company mines for gold, nickel, and copper.

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Regis Resources (RRL AU)

2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

The time is now right for gold miners as the gold price is set to move to new all time highs and margins expand creating a perfect storm for...

Rikki Malik

OceanaGold (OGC CN) Claims Ausgold (AUC AU). Clean Deal

A straightforward gold merger. Trading tightish at a gross/annualised spread of 4.2%/11.7%, assuming late December completion. If you can take down...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida

For the month of July, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$5bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]: Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 17th): Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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