Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN Amro will require some patience.</li>
<li>A closer look at the results and the main takeaways from the earnings call have strengthened our confidence that the bank is taking the right steps in the implementation of its strategy.</li>
<li>Cost savings are well on track with 30% (or ~1,500) of the FTE reductions for 2028 had already been realized by YE25. More than one-third (580 FTE) of this was realized in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>


ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN Amro will require some patience.
A closer look at the results and the main takeaways from the earnings call have strengthened our confidence that the bank is taking the right steps in the implementation of its strategy.
Cost savings are well on track with 30% (or ~1,500) of the FTE reductions for 2028 had already been realized by YE25. More than one-third (580 FTE) of this was realized in 4Q25.


<ul>
<li>Orlen has terminated its agreement with Poczta Polska to sell Orlen Paczka, formally ending plans for the Polish Post to acquire up to 100% of the parcel and locker operator.</li>
<li>This closes a high-profile consolidation project that had been positioned as a cornerstone of building a national, state-backed logistics champion capable of competing with private courier leaders.</li>
<li>As a result, Orlen retains full ownership of Orlen Paczka, which continues to operate independently in the highly competitive KEP (courier, express, parcel) market.</li>
</ul>


Orlen has terminated its agreement with Poczta Polska to sell Orlen Paczka, formally ending plans for the Polish Post to acquire up to 100% of the parcel and locker operator.
This closes a high-profile consolidation project that had been positioned as a cornerstone of building a national, state-backed logistics champion capable of competing with private courier leaders.
As a result, Orlen retains full ownership of Orlen Paczka, which continues to operate independently in the highly competitive KEP (courier, express, parcel) market.


<ul>
<li>In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.</li>
<li>We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.</li>
<li>We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. </li>
</ul>


In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.
We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.
We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Netherlands

RELX is a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers across various industries. It offers scientific, technical, and medical information and analytics, legal information and analytics, decision-making tools, and organizes exhibitions. The company was formed in 1993 from the merger of Reed International and Elsevier, and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

RELX (REN NA)

What's News in Amsterdam

ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

In today's edition: • InPost | deal between Orlen Paczka and Poczta Polska is off • RELX / Wolters Kluwer | how fAIr are investors’...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results...

The IDEA!

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's News in Amsterdam

ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

In today's edition: • InPost | deal between Orlen Paczka and Poczta Polska is off • RELX / Wolters Kluwer | how fAIr are investors’...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results...

The IDEA!

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...