Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Wells Fargo has seen its net interest income growth move to -8.3% YoY in 1Q24 from +8.3% YoY in 1Q23</li>
<li>The rate of net interest income growth at JPMorgan has nearly halved in the most recent quarter, to +11.4% YoY</li>
<li>Banks' high-frequency data on balance sheets suggest that there will remain worsening growth rates of net interest income for US banks</li>
</ul>


Wells Fargo has seen its net interest income growth move to -8.3% YoY in 1Q24 from +8.3% YoY in 1Q23
The rate of net interest income growth at JPMorgan has nearly halved in the most recent quarter, to +11.4% YoY
Banks' high-frequency data on balance sheets suggest that there will remain worsening growth rates of net interest income for US banks


US Banks - Faltering Net Interest Income Growth Is Well in Place, But This Should Worsen

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

<ul>
<li>US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction. </li>
<li>With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks' data, loans declined USD58bn.</li>
<li>Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters. </li>
</ul>


US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction. 
With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks' data, loans declined USD58bn.
Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters. 


US Banks - Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

<ul>
<li>New data for US PMI shows a continued weak economy, which is not positive for bank lending prospects or for loan pricing. It is also not positive for credit metrics. </li>
<li>New weekly data for large US banks show risk aversion remains, with rising cash, but also dismal growth in loans at only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week. </li>
<li>Large time deposits continue to rise substantially at +110% YoY in most recent week, with cash rising too - the outlook for core net interest income is worsening.</li>
</ul>


New data for US PMI shows a continued weak economy, which is not positive for bank lending prospects or for loan pricing. It is also not positive for credit metrics. 
New weekly data for large US banks show risk aversion remains, with rising cash, but also dismal growth in loans at only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week. 
Large time deposits continue to rise substantially at +110% YoY in most recent week, with cash rising too - the outlook for core net interest income is worsening.


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Risk Aversion Remains, New PMI Data Continues to Be Weak

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Remitly Global Inc provides financial services. The Company offers online money transer and payment solutions. Remitly Global serves customers worldwide.

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US Banks - Faltering Net Interest Income Growth Is Well in Place, But This Should Worsen

US bank's are now reporting 1Q24 data with far worse net interest income growth, which should not surprise our readers, and this should only...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

Weekly balance sheet data for large US banks shows liabilities shift toward higher cost funding continues, with loan growth remaining week, losing...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Risk Aversion Remains, New PMI Data Continues to Be Weak

New high frequency data on US large banks show weekly loan growth remains weak, large time deposit growth is high, and cash is rising. New PMI data...

Daniel Tabbush

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