Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US markets continue to pivot away from recent tech winners with a continued focus on Trump names.</li>
<li>Monolithic Power sold heavily on concerns it will lose NVDA mkt share to Renesas.</li>
<li>Will good numbers be enough for Recruit to break higher without more buybacks?</li>
</ul>


US markets continue to pivot away from recent tech winners with a continued focus on Trump names.
Monolithic Power sold heavily on concerns it will lose NVDA mkt share to Renesas.
Will good numbers be enough for Recruit to break higher without more buybacks?


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

<ul>
<li>If we care about PMI, we have to care about Automotive and Industrial Semiconductor. Cautiousness about high inventories and slowing end-demand slowly emerged in 1H24. 4Q guidance is a firework.</li>
<li>Renesas: 1Q24 “the Q1 bottom has not changed”. 2Q24 “more cautious outlook”. 3Q “we need to step on the brakes more. End demand, more than expected, became weaker”.</li>
<li>Do we buy stocks when valuations are low or when downward revisions are over? These stocks are cheap, but Consensus will continue cutting till 2Q25, in our view.</li>
</ul>


If we care about PMI, we have to care about Automotive and Industrial Semiconductor. Cautiousness about high inventories and slowing end-demand slowly emerged in 1H24. 4Q guidance is a firework.
Renesas: 1Q24 “the Q1 bottom has not changed”. 2Q24 “more cautious outlook”. 3Q “we need to step on the brakes more. End demand, more than expected, became weaker”.
Do we buy stocks when valuations are low or when downward revisions are over? These stocks are cheap, but Consensus will continue cutting till 2Q25, in our view.


NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

<ul>
<li>Uncertain trading ahead of the vote tomorrow likely to be carried over to Japan.</li>
<li>Palantir big beat after hours sets a positive tone for all things AI.</li>
<li>Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name after being a play on INTC for so long?</li>
</ul>


Uncertain trading ahead of the vote tomorrow likely to be carried over to Japan.
Palantir big beat after hours sets a positive tone for all things AI.
Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name after being a play on INTC for so long?


Japan Morning Connection: Palantir Sets Positve Tone for All Things AI

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company.</li>
<li>I continue to like automotive, specifically semiconductors.</li>
<li>However, despite sequentially better results, we are seeing continued weakness in automotive and meaningful weakness in Industrial</li>
</ul>


Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company.
I continue to like automotive, specifically semiconductors.
However, despite sequentially better results, we are seeing continued weakness in automotive and meaningful weakness in Industrial


Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Andrew Jackson

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Palantir Sets Positve Tone for All Things AI

Uncertain trading ahead of US vote likely to carry over to Japan. Palantir's big beat sets positive tone for AI. Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name...

Andrew Jackson

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company. I continue to like automotive,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

​US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Andrew Jackson

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

​Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Palantir Sets Positve Tone for All Things AI

​Uncertain trading ahead of US vote likely to carry over to Japan. Palantir's big beat sets positive tone for AI. Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name...

Andrew Jackson

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company. I continue to like automotive,...

Fabricated Knowledge

US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Uncertain trading ahead of US vote likely to carry over to Japan. Palantir's big beat sets positive tone for AI. Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name...