Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Fed job done; Inflation over- Stocks, Bonds Rally, USD falls; China new June new Credit growth accelerates- spurs Resources; Musk launches xAI ; Big Broker Upgrade to Euro Semi</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.5; US CPI print drives yen strength - headwind to stocks; PayPay to list in US ?  GS Ups Sony to Conviction BUY</li>
<li>NUGGET. DX Consultant BayCurrent to report on Friday - Generative AI boom the next driver ? </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Fed job done; Inflation over- Stocks, Bonds Rally, USD falls; China new June new Credit growth accelerates- spurs Resources; Musk launches xAI ; Big Broker Upgrade to Euro Semi
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.5; US CPI print drives yen strength - headwind to stocks; PayPay to list in US ?  GS Ups Sony to Conviction BUY
NUGGET. DX Consultant BayCurrent to report on Friday - Generative AI boom the next driver ? 


Ohayo Japan| Fed Job Done-Inflation Over, Stocks Rally; NUGGET: BayCurrent - To Leap from DX to AI ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)
NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !


Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Rally Pauses as weak(er) Services ISM brings recession risk reminder; MS Big Bearish Call on SPX; Apple unveils Game Changing VR Headset ; Crypto Worries -Binance CEO Charged</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; Expect a pull back today given US pause, overbought markets, and stronger yen;  MS Bullish Call on Japan; Panasonic expands Battery production for TESLA</li>
<li>NUGGET. Data Centers - Demand set to Explode with AI: Next Growth Driver for an Already undervalued Kansai Electric ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Rally Pauses as weak(er) Services ISM brings recession risk reminder; MS Big Bearish Call on SPX; Apple unveils Game Changing VR Headset ; Crypto Worries -Binance CEO Charged
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; Expect a pull back today given US pause, overbought markets, and stronger yen;  MS Bullish Call on Japan; Panasonic expands Battery production for TESLA
NUGGET. Data Centers - Demand set to Explode with AI: Next Growth Driver for an Already undervalued Kansai Electric ?


Ohayo Japan|US Rally Pauses on Services ISM-Recession Fears?; NUGGET: KEPCO, AI, and Data Centers ?

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Fed Job Done-Inflation Over, Stocks Rally; NUGGET: BayCurrent - To Leap from DX to AI ?

Fed job done - inflation defeated; NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.5; US CPI print drives yen strength - headwind to stocks; PayPay to list...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

US back to Declines as Feb Minutes indicate Hikes ahead; NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7; RENGO confirms largest wage Hike in 3 decades - but...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

The chip market is giving signs of a recovery which will see rising revenues but should remain unprofitable for commodity players until mid-2024. ...

Jim Handy

Ohayo Japan|US Rally Pauses on Services ISM-Recession Fears?; NUGGET: KEPCO, AI, and Data Centers ?

NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; Expect a pull back today given US pause, overbought markets, and stronger yen; MS Bullish Call on Japan; Panasonic expands...

Mark Chadwick

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