Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Further tech weakness in the US as markets brace for a more inflationary outlook.</li>
<li>Isetan Mitsukoshi numbers and new MTP should end recent underperformance.</li>
<li>Excessive Nintendo weakness on PIF cutting holdings a chance to buy ahead of new NSW announcement.</li>
</ul>


Further tech weakness in the US as markets brace for a more inflationary outlook.
Isetan Mitsukoshi numbers and new MTP should end recent underperformance.
Excessive Nintendo weakness on PIF cutting holdings a chance to buy ahead of new NSW announcement.


Japan Morning Connection: Softbank Further Consolidating Its AI Focus

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kansai Electric Power / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)</a> has announced primary and secondary offerings of up to 223.1 million shares (including overallotment) and a third-party allotment of 29.1 million shares.</li>
<li>JPY239.9 billion of proceeds will be used to improve energy efficiency and decarbonisation, while other funds will be used for data centres, renewable energy and overseas investments.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 26 and 29 November (likely 26 November).</li>
</ul>



Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) has announced primary and secondary offerings of up to 223.1 million shares (including overallotment) and a third-party allotment of 29.1 million shares.
JPY239.9 billion of proceeds will be used to improve energy efficiency and decarbonisation, while other funds will be used for data centres, renewable energy and overseas investments.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 26 and 29 November (likely 26 November).


Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): A US$3.5 Billion Primary/Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>US markets continue to pivot away from recent tech winners with a continued focus on Trump names.</li>
<li>Monolithic Power sold heavily on concerns it will lose NVDA mkt share to Renesas.</li>
<li>Will good numbers be enough for Recruit to break higher without more buybacks?</li>
</ul>


US markets continue to pivot away from recent tech winners with a continued focus on Trump names.
Monolithic Power sold heavily on concerns it will lose NVDA mkt share to Renesas.
Will good numbers be enough for Recruit to break higher without more buybacks?


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

<ul>
<li>If we care about PMI, we have to care about Automotive and Industrial Semiconductor. Cautiousness about high inventories and slowing end-demand slowly emerged in 1H24. 4Q guidance is a firework.</li>
<li>Renesas: 1Q24 “the Q1 bottom has not changed”. 2Q24 “more cautious outlook”. 3Q “we need to step on the brakes more. End demand, more than expected, became weaker”.</li>
<li>Do we buy stocks when valuations are low or when downward revisions are over? These stocks are cheap, but Consensus will continue cutting till 2Q25, in our view.</li>
</ul>


If we care about PMI, we have to care about Automotive and Industrial Semiconductor. Cautiousness about high inventories and slowing end-demand slowly emerged in 1H24. 4Q guidance is a firework.
Renesas: 1Q24 “the Q1 bottom has not changed”. 2Q24 “more cautious outlook”. 3Q “we need to step on the brakes more. End demand, more than expected, became weaker”.
Do we buy stocks when valuations are low or when downward revisions are over? These stocks are cheap, but Consensus will continue cutting till 2Q25, in our view.


NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank Further Consolidating Its AI Focus

Tech weaknes continues in the US, new numbers from Isetan Mitsukoshi should end recent underperformance and Nintendo weakness offer opportunities...

Andrew Jackson

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): A US$3.5 Billion Primary/Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 26 and...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Andrew Jackson

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank Further Consolidating Its AI Focus

Tech weaknes continues in the US, new numbers from Isetan Mitsukoshi should end recent underperformance and Nintendo weakness offer opportunities...

Andrew Jackson

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): A US$3.5 Billion Primary/Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 26 and...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

​US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Andrew Jackson

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

​Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Nicolas Baratte

US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...