Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.</li>
<li>ReNew's Special Committee will provide "public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025".
</li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
ReNew's Special Committee will provide "public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025".



ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

<ul>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)</a>'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.</li>
<li>Those who want to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial (8729 JP)</a> may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> is fully valued as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK) </a> trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. </li>
</ul>


The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.

Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-west-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:804:1" rel="noopener">Seven West Media (SWM AU)</a>'s, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carenet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4001:1" rel="noopener">Carenet Inc (2150 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Seven West Media (SWM AU)'s, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), and Spindex Industries (SPE SP).
Key updates/news took place on ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Treasury yields jumped yesterday, led by the short-end, as a stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report drove traders to exit bets on a July rate cut.</li>
<li>As of yesterday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in an almost zero chance of a rate decrease in July, along with 51 bps of cuts by year-end (vs. 65 bps as of Wednesday).</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 10 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 7 bps at 4.35%. </li>
</ul>


Treasury yields jumped yesterday, led by the short-end, as a stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report drove traders to exit bets on a July rate cut.
As of yesterday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in an almost zero chance of a rate decrease in July, along with 51 bps of cuts by year-end (vs. 65 bps as of Wednesday).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 10 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 7 bps at 4.35%. 


India

ReNew Energy Global is a decarbonization solutions company and a leading independent power producer, primarily focused on utility-scale wind, solar, and hydro energy projects in India. The company also provides clean energy solutions through digitalization, storage, carbon market services, and manufacturing of solar panels and modules. It was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Gurugram, India.

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ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)