Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy, China Jinmao</li>
<li>UST yields fell on Friday, led by the front end, after New York Fed President John Williams said he saw room for another rate cut in the near term, amid a softening labour market.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST declined 6 bps to 3.53%, while that on the 10Y UST dropped 5 bps to 4.09%. Equities recovered on Friday, but remained down for the week. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.0% and 0.9% to 6,603 and 22,273, respectively.</li>
<li> </li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy, China Jinmao
UST yields fell on Friday, led by the front end, after New York Fed President John Williams said he saw room for another rate cut in the near term, amid a softening labour market.
The yield on the 2Y UST declined 6 bps to 3.53%, while that on the 10Y UST dropped 5 bps to 4.09%. Equities recovered on Friday, but remained down for the week. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.0% and 0.9% to 6,603 and 22,273, respectively.
 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, an Indian renewable energy play, announced US$7.07/share NBIO. The bidding consortium subsequently bumped terms to US$8/share on the 3rd July.</li>
<li>After shares traded through terms for a week, the Consortium increased (best &amp; final) non-binding terms to US$8.15/share, a 29% premium to undisturbed. The Offer is via a UK Scheme.</li>
<li>That last bump was on the 10th October. JERA, with 11.7% of shares out, and 25.7% of minorities, is supportive, IF terms are firmed. The Special Committee is still mulling.</li>
</ul>


On the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced US$7.07/share NBIO. The bidding consortium subsequently bumped terms to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
After shares traded through terms for a week, the Consortium increased (best &amp; final) non-binding terms to US$8.15/share, a 29% premium to undisturbed. The Offer is via a UK Scheme.
That last bump was on the 10th October. JERA, with 11.7% of shares out, and 25.7% of minorities, is supportive, IF terms are firmed. The Special Committee is still mulling.


What's Up - Or Rather, Down - With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?

<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.</li>
<li>ReNew's Special Committee will provide "public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025".
</li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
ReNew's Special Committee will provide "public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025".



ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

<ul>
<li>The process in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> transaction is egregiously bad and lacking in  transparency. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even if bumped.</li>
<li>There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)</a>). I'm not convinced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> deserves similar accolades.  </li>
<li>If you've the ability to borrow <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>, this promises to be fun/interesting. If you're a long-only investor, it's more nuanced. And it depends on where you are post-tender.</li>
</ul>


The process in the Toyota Industries (6201 JP) transaction is egregiously bad and lacking in  transparency. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even if bumped.
There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late (Zijin Mining (2899 HK) and MINISO (9896 HK)). I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) deserves similar accolades.  
If you've the ability to borrow Aeon (8267 JP), this promises to be fun/interesting. If you're a long-only investor, it's more nuanced. And it depends on where you are post-tender.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds, Dongfeng Motors, Aeon/TSURUHA, Jinke Smart, Genting Malaysia

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/african-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29028:1" rel="noopener">African Gold Ltd (A1G AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), African Gold Ltd (A1G AU), and Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP).
Key updates/news also took place on: ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), Steadfast (SDF AU), and Spindex Industries (SPE SP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: ANE (Cayman), Predictive Discovery, African Gold, Steadfast, Spindex

India

ReNew Energy Global PLC operates as a renewable energy company. The Company focuses on developing wind, solar, and hydro energy projects. ReNew Energy Global serves clients in India.

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ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy, China Jinmao

Lucror Analytics

What's Up - Or Rather, Down - With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?

Trading at a 8.5% gross spread. I'd be getting some exposure here. I think the risk of minority shareholders pushing back is overstated. Note:...

David Blennerhassett