MD, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
 High-probability KPI miss: RDM needs a further 6.2% cut from 2024’s 0.449 tCO₂e/t to reach the 2025 SPT of 0.421 tCO₂e/t by Dec 31st, 2025.</li>
<li>
 Largest debt: The €600MM 2029 senior secured notes dominate the debt stack, alongside a €146MM revolver. Terms are private, for illustration we use a market 25bps proxy.</li>
<li>
 Value set-up in stress: Bonds around 79 cents on Sep 29th, 2025, then down 18 cents after Oct 8th, 2025, headlines. KPI miss likely; outlook pressured.</li>
</ul>



 High-probability KPI miss: RDM needs a further 6.2% cut from 2024’s 0.449 tCO₂e/t to reach the 2025 SPT of 0.421 tCO₂e/t by Dec 31st, 2025.

 Largest debt: The €600MM 2029 senior secured notes dominate the debt stack, alongside a €146MM revolver. Terms are private, for illustration we use a market 25bps proxy.

 Value set-up in stress: Bonds around 79 cents on Sep 29th, 2025, then down 18 cents after Oct 8th, 2025, headlines. KPI miss likely; outlook pressured.


Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Reno de Medici's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental and Governance scores. The company has a "Strong" score for the Social pillar. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Reno de Medici's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental and Governance scores. The company has a "Strong" score for the Social pillar. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".  

Reno De Medici - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>My €1.45/share long recommendation was based on the possibility of a sweetened offer that did not finally happen. Apollo has cannily been buying shares in the market to ensure success.</li>
<li>Since the transaction announcement Apollo has been adamant in its intention to delist Reno de Medici. Upon publication of the final results, Apollo owns 95.780% of the voting rights. </li>
<li>The squeeze-out procedure will be carried out on 29 December and the shares delisted from Milan and the Spanish Stock Exchange. </li>
</ul>


My €1.45/share long recommendation was based on the possibility of a sweetened offer that did not finally happen. Apollo has cannily been buying shares in the market to ensure success.
Since the transaction announcement Apollo has been adamant in its intention to delist Reno de Medici. Upon publication of the final results, Apollo owns 95.780% of the voting rights. 
The squeeze-out procedure will be carried out on 29 December and the shares delisted from Milan and the Spanish Stock Exchange. 


<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management Inc (APO US)</a> has reached an agreement to acquire a 67% stake in the Italian paper company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reno-de-medici-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33529:1" rel="noopener">Reno De Medici (RM IM)</a> from the firm's two largest shareholders <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cascades-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25714:1" rel="noopener">Cascades Inc (CAS CN)</a> and Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec. It is estimated that the operation will be completed during Q3 2021. The price of €1.45/share represents a premium of 21% over the 3-month VWAP.
<ul>
<li>This represents an implied equity value of €545.6 mn and implied EV of €533 mn.</li>
<li>
7.1x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 13.1x Fwd P/E. Last comparable transactions were carried out at a median 9.2x EV/LTM EBITDA (vs. 6.9x EV/LTM EBITDA in this transaction).</li>
</ul>
Afterwards, a takeover bid will be launched for the remaining shares, with the aim of delisting the company from the Milan stock exchange. 
The consideration looks a little on the cheap side, €1.45/share, for a majority stake vs. a median TP on Capital IQ consensus of €1.46. My TP is €1.575 (blended average of median implied EV/Fwd EBITDA and Fwd P/E), which represents an 8.6% upside to the offer price. 
Moreover, the last comparable transactions were carried out at a median 9.2x EV/LTM EBITDA (vs. 6.9x EV/LTM EBITDA in this one).
The interesting angle on this deal is the capacity of any shareholder who acquires a stake over 5% (at a cost of c. €27 mn) to block the delisting. Trading volumes have been much larger than usual over the last three trading sessions.
Recommendation is long RM IM. There are chances of a sweetened offer. Downside risk is limited to the €1.45/share offered by Apollo.

Apollo Global Management Inc (APO US) has reached an agreement to acquire a 67% stake in the Italian paper company Reno De Medici (RM IM) from the firm's two largest shareholders Cascades Inc (CAS CN) and Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec. It is estimated that the operation will be completed during Q3 2021. The price of €1.45/share represents a premium of 21% over the 3-month VWAP.

This represents an implied equity value of €545.6 mn and implied EV of €533 mn.

7.1x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 13.1x Fwd P/E. Last comparable transactions were carried out at a median 9.2x EV/LTM EBITDA (vs. 6.9x EV/LTM EBITDA in this transaction).

Afterwards, a takeover bid will be launched for the remaining shares, with the aim of delisting the company from the Milan stock exchange. 
The consideration looks a little on the cheap side, €1.45/share, for a majority stake vs. a median TP on Capital IQ consensus of €1.46. My TP is €1.575 (blended average of median implied EV/Fwd EBITDA and Fwd P/E), which represents an 8.6% upside to the offer price. 
Moreover, the last comparable transactions were carried out at a median 9.2x EV/LTM EBITDA (vs. 6.9x EV/LTM EBITDA in this one).
The interesting angle on this deal is the capacity of any shareholder who acquires a stake over 5% (at a cost of c. €27 mn) to block the delisting. Trading volumes have been much larger than usual over the last three trading sessions.
Recommendation is long RM IM. There are chances of a sweetened offer. Downside risk is limited to the €1.45/share offered by Apollo.

Apollo/Cascades/Reno De Medici: First Step to a Delisting Offer

Italy

Reno De Medici is a leading European manufacturer of cartonboard, primarily focusing on recycled fibers. The company produces and distributes various types of coated and uncoated cartonboard used for packaging in sectors like food, personal care, and home appliances. Headquartered in Milan, Italy, the company was founded in 1967.

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Reno De Medici (RM IM)