MD, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Event-Driven

Fermi LLC operates as an energy development company. The Company focuses on building electric grids that deliver redundant power at gigawatt scale to create next-generation artificial intelligence.

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Private debt terms signal stress. The primary lender’s 1YR term facility implies a 50%+ IRR via a MOIC option. This is under-covered and signals constrained alternatives.</li>
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 Calendar precedes cash. Fixed obligations hit before revenue, so equity value is driven by sequencing rather than AI demand narratives.</li>
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 Underwriting focus. Binding large-scale lease, funded bridge through fuel and logistics, and a credible take-out or refinance of the short-tenor facility.</li>
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Private debt terms signal stress. The primary lender’s 1YR term facility implies a 50%+ IRR via a MOIC option. This is under-covered and signals constrained alternatives.

 Calendar precedes cash. Fixed obligations hit before revenue, so equity value is driven by sequencing rather than AI demand narratives.

 Underwriting focus. Binding large-scale lease, funded bridge through fuel and logistics, and a credible take-out or refinance of the short-tenor facility.


Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers

Reno De Medici is a leading European manufacturer of cartonboard, primarily focusing on recycled fibers. The company produces and distributes various types of coated and uncoated cartonboard used for packaging in sectors like food, personal care, and home appliances. Headquartered in Milan, Italy, the company was founded in 1967.

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 High-probability KPI miss: RDM needs a further 6.2% cut from 2024’s 0.449 tCO₂e/t to reach the 2025 SPT of 0.421 tCO₂e/t by Dec 31st, 2025.</li>
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 Largest debt: The €600MM 2029 senior secured notes dominate the debt stack, alongside a €146MM revolver. Terms are private, for illustration we use a market 25bps proxy.</li>
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 Value set-up in stress: Bonds around 79 cents on Sep 29th, 2025, then down 18 cents after Oct 8th, 2025, headlines. KPI miss likely; outlook pressured.</li>
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 High-probability KPI miss: RDM needs a further 6.2% cut from 2024’s 0.449 tCO₂e/t to reach the 2025 SPT of 0.421 tCO₂e/t by Dec 31st, 2025.

 Largest debt: The €600MM 2029 senior secured notes dominate the debt stack, alongside a €146MM revolver. Terms are private, for illustration we use a market 25bps proxy.

 Value set-up in stress: Bonds around 79 cents on Sep 29th, 2025, then down 18 cents after Oct 8th, 2025, headlines. KPI miss likely; outlook pressured.


Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

Cross Asset Strategy

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 Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.</li>
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 Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&amp;T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.</li>
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 Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.</li>
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 Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.

 Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&amp;T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.

 Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.


Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

Vestas Wind Systems A/S develops, manufactures, and markets wind turbines that generate electricity. The Company installs and maintenance turbines. Vestas Wind Systems serves customers worldwide.

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Trade call: Long the €500MM 2029s (XS2449928543) to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss. Capture +5bps, and any signalling premium from a flagship renewable issuer missing own operations emissions</li>
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High miss risk: SPT 1 likely misses by &gt;50%, while SPT 2 and SPT 3 look on track versus 2025 target thresholds.</li>
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 Catalyst path: Measurement at Dec 31st, 2025, publication and assurance any date before Apr 29th, 2026. Step-up date fixes uplift from the next period after Jun 2026.</li>
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Trade call: Long the €500MM 2029s (XS2449928543) to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss. Capture +5bps, and any signalling premium from a flagship renewable issuer missing own operations emissions

High miss risk: SPT 1 likely misses by &gt;50%, while SPT 2 and SPT 3 look on track versus 2025 target thresholds.

 Catalyst path: Measurement at Dec 31st, 2025, publication and assurance any date before Apr 29th, 2026. Step-up date fixes uplift from the next period after Jun 2026.


Vestas (VWS) SLB: Trade the Jan to Apr 2026 Publication Window

Ampol Limited provides petroleum products. The Company offers petrol and convenience network as well as refining, importing, and marketing fuels and lubricants. Ampol serves defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial sectors in Australia.

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 Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.</li>
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 Miss risk: F&amp;I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.</li>
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 Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.</li>
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 Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.

 Miss risk: F&amp;I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.

 Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.


Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

EC
MD
• Leaf & Ledger Limited

Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers

When published I flagged Fermi’s calendar and Macquarie MOIC risks at $26.84, shares have now lost ~35% (c. $5.5B market cap) at $17.50. Q3...

EC

Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

High probability of KPI miss for RDM, needing 6.2% cut to reach 2025 target by Dec 31st. Largest debt is €600MM 2029 notes. Bonds value set-up in...

EC

Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

EC

Vestas (VWS) SLB: Trade the Jan to Apr 2026 Publication Window

Summary: Long €500MM 2029s to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss, with high risk but potential for +5bps and signalling premium from renewable issuer's...

EC

Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

Summary: Trade call to go long on 2022 SL hybrid, capturing optionality around 101% redemption and post-disclosure vendor lag. Two catalyst...

EC

Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers

When published I flagged Fermi’s calendar and Macquarie MOIC risks at $26.84, shares have now lost ~35% (c. $5.5B market cap) at $17.50. Q3...

EC

Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

High probability of KPI miss for RDM, needing 6.2% cut to reach 2025 target by Dec 31st. Largest debt is €600MM 2029 notes. Bonds value set-up in...

EC

Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

​Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

EC

Vestas (VWS) SLB: Trade the Jan to Apr 2026 Publication Window

​Summary: Long €500MM 2029s to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss, with high risk but potential for +5bps and signalling premium from renewable issuer's...

EC

Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

​Summary: Trade call to go long on 2022 SL hybrid, capturing optionality around 101% redemption and post-disclosure vendor lag. Two catalyst...

EC

Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

Summary: Long €500MM 2029s to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss, with high risk but potential for +5bps and signalling premium from renewable issuer's...

Summary: Trade call to go long on 2022 SL hybrid, capturing optionality around 101% redemption and post-disclosure vendor lag. Two catalyst...