Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Evan Campbell, CFA, is a senior buy-side investor with 20+ years across private markets, real assets, and credit. He led portfolio management for a +€3bn European platform at Kennedy Wilson, with earlier front-office roles at Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, a listed North American REIT, and a pan-European private equity real estate platform. He is leading voice in private markets and special situations, with broad depth of experience across real assets, portfolio strategy, and risk management. Credentials include the CFA charter and the CFA Institute Climate Risk, Valuation & Investing Certificate, with additional training in credit analysis and advanced LBO and M&A modelling through Moody’s and a leading financial-modelling platform. Coverage spans Europe and the Americas.

Managing Director

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit

SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
 Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.</li>
<li>
 Miss risk: F&amp;I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.</li>
<li>
 Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.</li>
</ul>



 Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.

 Miss risk: F&amp;I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.

 Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.


Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window