Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Evan Campbell, CFA, is a senior buy-side investor with 20+ years across private markets, real assets, and credit. He led portfolio management for a +€3bn European platform at Kennedy Wilson, with earlier front-office roles at Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, a listed North American REIT, and a pan-European private equity real estate platform. He is leading voice in private markets and special situations, with broad depth of experience across real assets, portfolio strategy, and risk management. Credentials include the CFA charter and the CFA Institute Climate Risk, Valuation & Investing Certificate, with additional training in credit analysis and advanced LBO and M&A modelling through Moody’s and a leading financial-modelling platform. Coverage spans Europe and the Americas.

Managing Director

Air France‑KLM (AF) SLBs, High Miss Risk Into 2026

Yinson (7293) SLB, A Documented Pricing-Lag Arbitrage in 2025

Smartkarma Webinar | Sustainability/ESG Disclosure and Reporting

Smartkarma Webinar | Promoting Sustainability in ASEAN: Rise of the Green Economy

Smartkarma Webinar | Alt-Angles: ESG in Special Situations/Alternative Assets

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Set-Up and scale: 245 SLBs face 2025 KPI tests; applying a 19% 2024 miss rate implies ~50 step-ups of ~25 bps, worth ~20–60 bps PV. &gt;$80bn notional, heaviest in Q4.</li>
<li>
Trade design, credit and equity: Pre-position where slippage exists and no pre-test calls; run structure pairs; trade post-print drift; for equities, SLB misses flag delivery shortfalls and funding-cost creep.</li>
<li>
Why the market is inefficient: ESG KPIs hide in footnotes and annexes, overlooked by analysts. Verification lags and slow vendor updates delay repricing, so step-up structures stay mis-weighted and mispriced.</li>
</ul>



Set-Up and scale: 245 SLBs face 2025 KPI tests; applying a 19% 2024 miss rate implies ~50 step-ups of ~25 bps, worth ~20–60 bps PV. &gt;$80bn notional, heaviest in Q4.

Trade design, credit and equity: Pre-position where slippage exists and no pre-test calls; run structure pairs; trade post-print drift; for equities, SLB misses flag delivery shortfalls and funding-cost creep.

Why the market is inefficient: ESG KPIs hide in footnotes and annexes, overlooked by analysts. Verification lags and slow vendor updates delay repricing, so step-up structures stay mis-weighted and mispriced.


SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha