Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Evan Campbell, CFA, is a senior buy-side investor with 20+ years across private markets, real assets, and credit. He led portfolio management for a +€3bn European platform at Kennedy Wilson, with earlier front-office roles at Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, a listed North American REIT, and a pan-European private equity real estate platform. He is leading voice in private markets and special situations, with broad depth of experience across real assets, portfolio strategy, and risk management. Credentials include the CFA charter and the CFA Institute Climate Risk, Valuation & Investing Certificate, with additional training in credit analysis and advanced LBO and M&A modelling through Moody’s and a leading financial-modelling platform. Coverage spans Europe and the Americas.

Managing Director

Eramet (ERA FP) SLB: Trade the Metals Event-Carry Window

SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

Smartkarma Webinar | Promoting Sustainability in ASEAN: Rise of the Green Economy

Smartkarma Webinar | Sustainability/ESG Disclosure and Reporting

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 High miss probability: Suzano has $2.75B SLBs. The 2031 SPT needs 2025 intensity to fall 14% YoY, while the largest one-year reduction since 2019 is ≈2.9%. A miss is likely.</li>
<li>
 Catalyst within months: Observation windows end YE 2025 and 2026. Coupons reset from July and September 2026. Vendor updates often lag disclosure, creating a tradable timing gap.</li>
<li>
 How to position: Accumulate select SLBs into verification for carry when SPTs miss. Trade equity around KPI disclosures as a read on efficiency and capex cadence.</li>
</ul>



 High miss probability: Suzano has $2.75B SLBs. The 2031 SPT needs 2025 intensity to fall 14% YoY, while the largest one-year reduction since 2019 is ≈2.9%. A miss is likely.

 Catalyst within months: Observation windows end YE 2025 and 2026. Coupons reset from July and September 2026. Vendor updates often lag disclosure, creating a tradable timing gap.

 How to position: Accumulate select SLBs into verification for carry when SPTs miss. Trade equity around KPI disclosures as a read on efficiency and capex cadence.


Suzano SLBs, High Miss Risk Into 2026