MD, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Yinson (7293) SLB, A Documented Pricing-Lag Arbitrage in 2025

SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
 Trade call: Long the 2028 SLB for a likely step-up from at latest May 22, 2026, hedge duration, exit post vendor field updates in May 2026.</li>
<li>
 Probability of rate step-up: Single KPI miss and step-up path most likely, with intensity tight and engagement near threshold, optionality crystallizes into tactical carry, not credit stress.</li>
<li>
 Catalyst path: Step-up mechanics, assurance, and vendor field updates create a defined trading window, see uplifted coupon count and cash cost below.</li>
</ul>



 Trade call: Long the 2028 SLB for a likely step-up from at latest May 22, 2026, hedge duration, exit post vendor field updates in May 2026.

 Probability of rate step-up: Single KPI miss and step-up path most likely, with intensity tight and engagement near threshold, optionality crystallizes into tactical carry, not credit stress.

 Catalyst path: Step-up mechanics, assurance, and vendor field updates create a defined trading window, see uplifted coupon count and cash cost below.


Eramet (ERA FP) SLB: Trade the Metals Event-Carry Window