Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Evan Campbell, CFA, is a senior buy-side investor with 20+ years across private markets, real assets, and credit. He led portfolio management for a +€3bn European platform at Kennedy Wilson, with earlier front-office roles at Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, a listed North American REIT, and a pan-European private equity real estate platform. He is leading voice in private markets and special situations, with broad depth of experience across real assets, portfolio strategy, and risk management. Credentials include the CFA charter and the CFA Institute Climate Risk, Valuation & Investing Certificate, with additional training in credit analysis and advanced LBO and M&A modelling through Moody’s and a leading financial-modelling platform. Coverage spans Europe and the Americas.

Managing Director

European Airlines - Difficult to Avoid Long Haul Earnings Declines in 2024

Air France-KLM - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

Smartkarma Webinar | Promoting Sustainability in ASEAN: Rise of the Green Economy

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

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 High miss probability: Latest emissions intensity 920 gCO₂e per RTK (YE 2024) vs 851 target for 2025. A 7.5% one‑year cut after flat 2024. Base case miss and event-driven opportunity. </li>
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 Catalyst within months: The observation window ends YE 2025. Coupons adjust (up to +75bps) from May 2026 on the 2026s and over 2027-2028 on the 2028s, creating a tradable window. </li>
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 How to position: Own selected credit and optionality rather than step‑up carry. Trade around KPI disclosures and verification when the probability of a miss is priced before payments change. </li>
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 High miss probability: Latest emissions intensity 920 gCO₂e per RTK (YE 2024) vs 851 target for 2025. A 7.5% one‑year cut after flat 2024. Base case miss and event-driven opportunity. 

 Catalyst within months: The observation window ends YE 2025. Coupons adjust (up to +75bps) from May 2026 on the 2026s and over 2027-2028 on the 2028s, creating a tradable window. 

 How to position: Own selected credit and optionality rather than step‑up carry. Trade around KPI disclosures and verification when the probability of a miss is priced before payments change. 


Air France‑KLM (AF) SLBs, High Miss Risk Into 2026