Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas?slug=quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (link).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. 


[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.</li>
<li>The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.</li>
<li>We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.


S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

Australia

Resolute Mining Limited explores for, produces and develops gold in Mali and Queensland, Australia. The Company's gold exploration projects include Syama and Ravenswood.

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Resolute Mining (RSG AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Spark New Zealand (SPK AU) is a high-conviction ASX 200 DEL. Clarity Pharma (CU6 AU) is leading the race to become an ASX 200 add and Resolute...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF rebal in September comes with a change in benchmark which makes this a bigger deal than normal. That adds flows. We see...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

The market consultation ends in 2 weeks, and the conclusions should be announced soon after that. A lot of the stocks have moved significantly over...

Brian Freitas

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