Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has been quite a while since high Beta names have consistently outperformed. However, Retail Investor names continue to do well.

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has been quite a while since high Beta names have consistently outperformed. However, Retail Investor names continue to do well. 

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

APATHY STRIKES AGAIN<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/686/original/2018-09-23_17-11-57.png?1537690346" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/690/original/2018-09-23_17-44-03.png?1537692262" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64690"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>BREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/701/original/2018-09-05_19-59-32.png?1537698981" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64701"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>GAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a> noted on 2nd September - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-redux-foreign-investor-flows-still-matter-and-they-are-still-cyclical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23654">Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical</a>, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-seasonality-sell-in-july-and-say-goodbye-please-come-back-on-culture-day" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23682">Japan: Seasonality</a>, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/704/original/2018-09-23_20-08-06.png?1537700901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64704"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>CHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/705/original/2018-09-23_20-19-16.png?1537701582" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64705"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/707/original/2018-09-23_20-34-21.png?1537702506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64707"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4102" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1">Nissan Chemical (4021 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1496" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1">Showa Denko (4004 JP)</a>.

APATHY STRIKES AGAINSource: Japan AnalyticsTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.Source: Japan AnalyticsGAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As Travis Lundy noted on 2nd September - Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in Japan: Seasonality, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.Source: Japan AnalyticsCHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. Source: Japan AnalyticsOUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on Kikkoman (2801 JP), Nissan Chemical (4021 JP) and Showa Denko (4004 JP).

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/232/original/2018-08-21_11-07-40.png?1534817272" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61232"></figure>RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/247/original/2018-08-21_11-48-00.png?1534819694" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61247"></figure>MOST OPTIMISTIC <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/341/original/2018-08-22_10-41-33.png?1534902426" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61341"></figure>MOST PESSIMISTIC<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/342/original/2018-08-22_10-44-42.png?1534902469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61342"></figure><div class="content-caption">All tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.</div>LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10MOST OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTICAll tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE LONG PORTFOLIOS - Our recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Japan: Most Overbought &amp; Most Oversold - The Relative Price Score</a> introduced our methodology for identifying overbought and oversold outliers based on their Relative Price Score (RPS).  This insight uses the RPS to generate a portfolio of long ideas based on changes in the monthly closing Relative Price Scores. <div class="content-highlight">
THE 2016 PORTFOLIO 
<ul>
<li>The 2016 average return was 40% for a 12-month holding period, and if held to the most recent peak, returns would have been significantly higher</li>
<li>21 of the 48 stocks had a market capitalisation at the time of entry of more than ¥100b and the average 12-month return for this group was 41%</li>
<li>17 positions were in Regional Banks which produced an average 12-month return of 19%</li>
<li>18 positions saw a greater than 10% decline after entry, however, this group produced an average 12-month return of 23%</li>
<li>Seven stocks declined over the period and produced an average 'loss' of 7% </li>
<li>The strategy successfully identified the opportunity in the Energy sector in early 2016 with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1">Modec (6269 JP)</a> and later, but less productively, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1">Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)</a>
</li>
<li>Other successful larger capitalisation positions were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1496" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1">Showa Denko (4004 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15998" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15998:1">Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting (5706 JP)</a>
</li>
<li>The least successful position was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> which is still far from being an RPS 'long'</li>
</ul>
</div><div class="content-highlight">
THE 2017 PORTFOLIO
<ul>
<li>The average return for the first half of 2017 was 28% for a subsequent 12-month holding period. If held to the most recent peak, the average return would have grown to 50%</li>
<li>9 of the 17 stocks had a market capitalisation at the time of entry of more than ¥100b and the average 12-month return for this group was only 6% - much of this was due to the six Electric Power companies which lost 2% on average</li>
<li>Only two Regional Banks appear on the list - most Regionals are now deeply oversold</li>
<li>The best performing larger capitalisation position was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1">Sharp (6753 JP)</a> although this is now back in oversold territory</li>
</ul>
</div><div class="content-highlight">
THE CURRENT PORTFOLIO
<ul>
<li>The current portfolio is averaging a return of 19%, although most of the returns so far are from micro-caps</li>
<li>For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥50b, double-digit gains-to-peak have been achieved from positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/292" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1">Electric Power Dev  (9513 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9797:1">Hyakugo Bank (8368 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18871" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10383" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10383:1">Global One Reit (8958 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22762" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22762:1">GMO Financial (7177 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17934" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17934:1">Shikoku Electric Power (9507 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4152" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8905" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8905:1">Nippon Chemi Con (6997 JP)</a>
</li>
<li>The most represented Sectors/Peer Groups are Utilities (6), Auto-Parts (4), REITs (4) and Commercial Printing (2)</li>
<li>The best position in the last twelve months has been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2935:1">Aigan (9854 JP)</a> with a return-to-peak of 186%</li>
<li>The largest companies by market capitalisation in the current portfolio are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13613" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14574" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14574:1">Chubu Electric Power (9502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19388" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18907" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18907:1">Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>
</div>

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE LONG PORTFOLIOS - Our recent insight Japan: Most Overbought &amp; Most Oversold - The Relative Price Score introduced our methodology for identifying overbought and oversold outliers based on their Relative Price Score (RPS).  This insight uses the RPS to generate a portfolio of long ideas based on changes in the monthly closing Relative Price Scores. 
THE 2016 PORTFOLIO 

The 2016 average return was 40% for a 12-month holding period, and if held to the most recent peak, returns would have been significantly higher
21 of the 48 stocks had a market capitalisation at the time of entry of more than ¥100b and the average 12-month return for this group was 41%
17 positions were in Regional Banks which produced an average 12-month return of 19%
18 positions saw a greater than 10% decline after entry, however, this group produced an average 12-month return of 23%
Seven stocks declined over the period and produced an average 'loss' of 7% 
The strategy successfully identified the opportunity in the Energy sector in early 2016 with Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) and Modec (6269 JP) and later, but less productively, Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)

Other successful larger capitalisation positions were Showa Denko (4004 JP) and Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting (5706 JP)

The least successful position was Toshiba (6502 JP) which is still far from being an RPS 'long'


THE 2017 PORTFOLIO

The average return for the first half of 2017 was 28% for a subsequent 12-month holding period. If held to the most recent peak, the average return would have grown to 50%
9 of the 17 stocks had a market capitalisation at the time of entry of more than ¥100b and the average 12-month return for this group was only 6% - much of this was due to the six Electric Power companies which lost 2% on average
Only two Regional Banks appear on the list - most Regionals are now deeply oversold
The best performing larger capitalisation position was Sharp (6753 JP) although this is now back in oversold territory


THE CURRENT PORTFOLIO

The current portfolio is averaging a return of 19%, although most of the returns so far are from micro-caps
For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥50b, double-digit gains-to-peak have been achieved from positions in Electric Power Dev  (9513 JP), Hyakugo Bank (8368 JP), Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP), Global One Reit (8958 JP), GMO Financial (7177 JP), Shikoku Electric Power (9507 JP) , Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) and Nippon Chemi Con (6997 JP)

The most represented Sectors/Peer Groups are Utilities (6), Auto-Parts (4), REITs (4) and Commercial Printing (2)
The best position in the last twelve months has been Aigan (9854 JP) with a return-to-peak of 186%
The largest companies by market capitalisation in the current portfolio are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Chubu Electric Power (9502 JP), Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP) and Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)




Japan: Relative Price Score Long Portfolios

Japan

Resonac Holdings Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces synthetic resins, petrochemical products, inorganics, and other related products. Resonac Holdings also produces ceramics, metals, carbon, electronic materials, and other products.

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Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has...

Custom Products Group

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend...

Vermilion Research

Japan Fortnightly Update: Celebration

APATHY STRIKES AGAINTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Relative Price Score Long Portfolios

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE LONG PORTFOLIOS - Our recent insight Japan: Most Overbought & Most Oversold - The Relative Price Score introduced our...

Campbell Gunn

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