European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The current offer from Apollo of 65p/share undervalues the company. RTN ex-Leisure can achieve huge upside merely by executing the business plan. The shares have consistently traded above 65p.</li>
<li>Activist investors are piling on the register and there is a strong possibility that shareholders push for an offer sweetening (c.75p). RTN is in play, another PE bidder could interlope. </li>
<li>The bid is below mid-2021 highs of around 140p. Although a 34% premium is optically good, a conservative SOTP valuation provides a fair value estimate of 78.7p/share (8.7x EV/24eEBITDA).</li>
</ul>


The current offer from Apollo of 65p/share undervalues the company. RTN ex-Leisure can achieve huge upside merely by executing the business plan. The shares have consistently traded above 65p.
Activist investors are piling on the register and there is a strong possibility that shareholders push for an offer sweetening (c.75p). RTN is in play, another PE bidder could interlope. 
The bid is below mid-2021 highs of around 140p. Although a 34% premium is optically good, a conservative SOTP valuation provides a fair value estimate of 78.7p/share (8.7x EV/24eEBITDA).


Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The F100 and F250 December 2023 index changes are likely to be announced after the close on Wednesday 29th December 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 based on rankings as of 27th November 2023.</li>
<li>There could be one change for the F100 index and six separate changes for the F250 index. Some names lurking close to the border can still make it.</li>
</ul>


The F100 and F250 December 2023 index changes are likely to be announced after the close on Wednesday 29th December 2023.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 based on rankings as of 27th November 2023.
There could be one change for the F100 index and six separate changes for the F250 index. Some names lurking close to the border can still make it.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to seven index  changes including a couple of potential intra-review index changes that could be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>I expect the regular Inclusion/Exclusion events to take place at the market close on Friday 15th December 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to seven index  changes including a couple of potential intra-review index changes that could be triggered by M&amp;A events.
I expect the regular Inclusion/Exclusion events to take place at the market close on Friday 15th December 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dechra-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21908:1" rel="noopener">Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/network-international-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28918:1" rel="noopener">Network International Holdings (NETW LN)</a> are currently involved in takeover situations. When those deals close, intra-review changes can be triggered.</li>
<li>Including these changes, there could be up to one F100 change and seven F250 changes between now and the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) are currently involved in takeover situations. When those deals close, intra-review changes can be triggered.
Including these changes, there could be up to one F100 change and seven F250 changes between now and the end of the year.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting

United Kingdom

Restaurant Group plc is an independent multi-site operator of branded restaurants and pub restaurants in the United Kingdom.  The Company's concessions division operates primarily at airports in the United Kingdom.

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Restaurant Group (RTN LN)

In Play and Likely Worth More

Apollo's offer of 65p/share undervalues RTN ex-Leisure, which has potential for significant growth. Shareholders may push for a better offer as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

Today is the base date for the December 2023 review. The index changes for the December 2023 review will be decided based on full market cap...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

I suggest having a look at the 888 holdings (888 LN) / Playtech Plc (PTEC LN) pair as a sector-neutral fundamental relative value bet with a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting

The top 7 F250 Potential ADDs currently have ~10 days of volume to buy and up to a couple of these names could be added on an intra-review basis...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

In Play and Likely Worth More

​Apollo's offer of 65p/share undervalues RTN ex-Leisure, which has potential for significant growth. Shareholders may push for a better offer as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

Today is the base date for the December 2023 review. The index changes for the December 2023 review will be decided based on full market cap...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

I suggest having a look at the 888 holdings (888 LN) / Playtech Plc (PTEC LN) pair as a sector-neutral fundamental relative value bet with a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting

The top 7 F250 Potential ADDs currently have ~10 days of volume to buy and up to a couple of these names could be added on an intra-review basis...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Apollo's offer of 65p/share undervalues RTN ex-Leisure, which has potential for significant growth. Shareholders may push for a better offer as...

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: ~7 Changes Possible; LONG Playtech SHORT 888 Interesting