Financials & FinTech, EM & Southern Europe, Galliano's Latin Notes

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech, EM & Southern Europe

Galliano's Latin Notes

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-bank-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:583:1" rel="noopener">PB Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malayan-banking-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:600:1" rel="noopener">Maybank</a> are quality but seem fully valued by comparison</li>
<li>RHB Bank has, in the December quarter, maintained its improved its pre-provision profitability versus its peers; RHB’s high CET1 ratio understates its ROE, and it is attractive on PE multiples</li>
<li>CIMB once again improved its positive post-provision returns which should support CIMB’s share price given its modest valuations and attractive PEG versus peers; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned</li>
</ul>


Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list; PB Bank and Maybank are quality but seem fully valued by comparison
RHB Bank has, in the December quarter, maintained its improved its pre-provision profitability versus its peers; RHB’s high CET1 ratio understates its ROE, and it is attractive on PE multiples
CIMB once again improved its positive post-provision returns which should support CIMB’s share price given its modest valuations and attractive PEG versus peers; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned


Malaysian Banks December 2022 Results Screener; Sticking with Buys on CIMB and RHB

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Far too much volatility in credit costs, making clarity on earnings difficult</li>
<li>All core fee income items down sharply in quarter, credit cost delta main driver</li>
<li>Despite good lending growth, there is little to show for it in ROA and core income</li>
</ul>


Far too much volatility in credit costs, making clarity on earnings difficult
All core fee income items down sharply in quarter, credit cost delta main driver
Despite good lending growth, there is little to show for it in ROA and core income


<ul>
<li>Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we highlight RHB Bank and retain CIMB on the buy list; PB Bank and Maybank are quality but seem fairly valued</li>
<li>RHB Bank has, in the September quarter, meaningfully improved its pre-provision profitability versus its peers; RHB’s high CET1 ratio suppresses its ROE, and it is attractive on PE and PEG</li>
<li>CIMB once again improved its positive post-provision returns which is constructive for CIMB’s share price given its modest valuations versus its peers; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned</li>
</ul>


Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we highlight RHB Bank and retain CIMB on the buy list; PB Bank and Maybank are quality but seem fairly valued
RHB Bank has, in the September quarter, meaningfully improved its pre-provision profitability versus its peers; RHB’s high CET1 ratio suppresses its ROE, and it is attractive on PE and PEG
CIMB once again improved its positive post-provision returns which is constructive for CIMB’s share price given its modest valuations versus its peers; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned


Malaysian Banks September 2022 Results Screener; RHB Stands Out, and Stick with CIMB

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carsome-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35913:1" rel="noopener">Carsome (CARSOME1 SP)</a>, Malaysia's used-car eCommerce/technology unicorn, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO filing for a dual listing on Nasdaq and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange</a>.</li>
<li>Carsome has a great ESG story to tell, but needs to be less humble about telling it because pre-IPO ESG messaging can impact IPO valuations, especially for transportation-related deals.</li>
<li>The centerpiece of Carsome's ESG story should be the important (but underappreciated) role of used car markets in decarbonising road transportation, a leading source of carbon emissions.</li>
</ul>



Carsome (CARSOME1 SP), Malaysia's used-car eCommerce/technology unicorn, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO filing for a dual listing on Nasdaq and Singapore Exchange.
Carsome has a great ESG story to tell, but needs to be less humble about telling it because pre-IPO ESG messaging can impact IPO valuations, especially for transportation-related deals.
The centerpiece of Carsome's ESG story should be the important (but underappreciated) role of used car markets in decarbonising road transportation, a leading source of carbon emissions.


Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea</li>
<li>In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico</li>
<li>Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials</li>
</ul>


Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea
In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico
Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials


Large Cap GEM Bank Screener - Our Top Picks

Malaysia

RHB Bank BHD provides banking services. The Company offers commercial and consumer banking, corporate and investment banking, and international banking services. RHB also provides savings accounts, foreign currency accounts, home and travel insurance, and investment planning.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK)

Malaysian Banks December 2022 Results Screener; Sticking with Buys on CIMB and RHB

We keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list for attractive PE multiples and PBV ratios as well as their improving return trends; PB Bank and Maybank...

Victor Galliano

RHB - Volatility

RHB's credit costs are characterized by a high degree of volatility, which is not something that we view as positive. Reversals hardly repeat...

Daniel Tabbush

Malaysian Banks September 2022 Results Screener; RHB Stands Out, and Stick with CIMB

We highlight RHB Bank and keep CIMB on the buy list; RHB has improved its pre-provision profitability and it is attractive on PE and PEG; CIMB...

Victor Galliano

Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Carsome has reportedly filed for an IPO (dual Nasdaq/SGX listing), and has a great ESG story to tell investors including the role that used car...

Kyle Rudden

Large Cap GEM Bank Screener - Our Top Picks

In EM Asia, we like CCB, HDFC Bank, Mandiri & Hana; in LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, go cautious on Bradesco & remain cautious on...

Victor Galliano

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)