Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.</li>
<li>We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.
We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245


Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.</li>
<li>Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.
Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).


Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

<ul>
<li>The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.</li>
<li>This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.</li>
</ul>


The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantum computing's outlook is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges, with each breakthrough or setback collapsing possibilities and probabilities into a new, uncertain reality.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a>'s  "quantum supremacy" milestone shows quantum computing's transformative potential, but unresolved challenges despite decades of effort risks confining it to niche applications, limiting its broader impact.  </li>
<li>Among pure-plays <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ionq-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36838:1" rel="noopener">IonQ (IONQ US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/d-wave-quantum-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37745:1" rel="noopener">D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigetti-computing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37755:1" rel="noopener">Rigetti Computing (RGTI US)</a> stand out. IonQ's focus on high-fidelity, cloud and practical applications positions it particularly well.</li>
</ul>


Quantum computing's outlook is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges, with each breakthrough or setback collapsing possibilities and probabilities into a new, uncertain reality.

Alphabet (GOOG US)'s  "quantum supremacy" milestone shows quantum computing's transformative potential, but unresolved challenges despite decades of effort risks confining it to niche applications, limiting its broader impact.  
Among pure-plays IonQ (IONQ US) , D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US) , Rigetti Computing (RGTI US) stand out. IonQ's focus on high-fidelity, cloud and practical applications positions it particularly well.


Quantum Computing – The Future That’s Loading… and Not Loading

United States

Rigetti Computing, Inc. is an integrated systems company. The Company designs and develops quantum computers and superconducting quantum processors using artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions. Rigetti Computing serves customers worldwide.

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Rigetti Computing (RGTI US)

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on $SPX, $610 on $QQQ, and $257 on $IWM. We expect a period of consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs $SPX $QQQ $NDX; 10- and 30-Year Treasury Yields Rolling Over?; Watching $209-210 resistance...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

Quantum Computing – The Future That’s Loading… and Not Loading

Quantum computing is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges. Each breakthrough or setback takes possibilities and...

Pyari Menon

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