'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pair is child apparel specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimatsuya-chain-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13375:1" rel="noopener">Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP)</a> and food ingredients maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/riken-vitamin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20980:1" rel="noopener">Riken Vitamin (4526 JP)</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/836/original/2020-10-01_06-09-42.png?1601500212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162836"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/837/original/2020-10-01_06-13-47.png?1601500441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162837"></figure><p>Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>20 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 30% Positive / 10% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.9 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.5% Quarter YoY / -9.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -10.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 6% Neutral / 59% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.6 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair is child apparel specialist Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP) and food ingredients maker Riken Vitamin (4526 JP). 

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics


DAILY STATS

20 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30% Positive / 10% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -7.5% Quarter YoY / -9.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -10.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%


15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 6% Neutral / 59% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.6 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​30 - Nishimatsuya Chain, Adastria, Strike, Riken Vitamin

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We have broken the volumes spikes into two groups 1- names where we could see some news and 2- names where there was no news to explain the volume spike. </p><h2>Some News</h2><p>Yesterday some larger names spiked on volume in front of earnings announcements. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> is down 2% on more than 4 standard deviations of volume on the back of a Nikkei preview. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13517" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1">Oriental Land Co Ltd (4661 JP)</a> is down 1% on strong volume also after a Nikkei preview.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a> jumped up 4% on 3.6 standard…</p>

We have broken the volumes spikes into two groups 1- names where we could see some news and 2- names where there was no news to explain the volume spike. Some NewsYesterday some larger names spiked on volume in front of earnings announcements. NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) is down 2% on more than 4 standard deviations of volume on the back of a Nikkei preview. Oriental Land Co Ltd (4661 JP) is down 1% on strong volume also after a Nikkei preview.  Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) jumped up 4% on 3.6 standard…

Leakage Report 4/26/17 - Names that Moved on Volume Yesterday, Days Before They Announce Earnings...

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider, Nowcast, Inc.

Ryota Hayashi

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider

Nowcast, Inc.

We at Nowcast develop "Big-Data Economic Analytics Platforms".  We aim to revolutionize the financial markets by providing "accurate" and "real-time" analytics based on economic indicators and corporate activity data procured worldwide. 

Our Main Services

(1) Real-time Analytics
With our Nikkei CPI Now Index at our core, we provide real time analytics of global economic indicators such as POS Data. By utilizing Big-Data technology, we also provide real-time analytics of micro level data such as corporate earnings. 

(2) Big-Data Application Consulting
We too provide business consultation and conduct joint research on initiatives that strive to use data, such as from the operation capacity of construction machinery to number of passengers on railroad trains, as economic indicators. We provide continuous support to Data Scientists specialized in economics in their proposal stage, product development and up till its business development. 

(3) Monetary Policy Insights
With the proactive involvement of and support from from academicians in macroeconomics & key figures in the financial industry, we produce reports, conduct seminars and meetings that discuss about the forecast of financial markets, provide intellectual suggestions on asset allocation, etc. 

Macroeconomics

<ul class="ember-tether-target ember-tether-element-attached-top ember-tether-element-attached-left ember-tether-target-attached-top ember-tether-target-attached-right"><li><strong>"Nikkei CPINow" </strong>is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data” gathered on a real-time basis; making it possible to “nowcast” economic developments, that is, to gauge them almost in real time.</li><li>Nikkei CPINow was launched in January 2016, disseminating the new “CPINow” price indeces, which succeeds and improves upon the Nikkei UTokyo Daily Price Index.</li><li>This December 2016 Review looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow<strong> S index </strong>&amp;<strong> T index.</strong></li></ul>

"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data” gathered on a real-time basis; making it possible to “nowcast” economic developments, that is, to gauge them almost in real time.Nikkei CPINow was launched in January 2016, disseminating the new “CPINow” price indeces, which succeeds and improves upon the Nikkei UTokyo Daily Price Index.This December 2016 Review looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.

December 2016 Review of Current Developments in Japan's Economy

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Q1 FY03/26 revenue was JPY23.3bn, a 1.6% YoY decline, with Domestic Chemicals increasing and Overseas business declining.</li><li>Operating profit decreased by 6.2% YoY to JPY2.4bn, impacted by FX losses and increased advertising and logistics costs.</li><li>Consumer foods revenue increased YoY, while commercial foods decreased; processed food ingredients and chemical products saw YoY growth.</li></ul>

Q1 FY03/26 revenue was JPY23.3bn, a 1.6% YoY decline, with Domestic Chemicals increasing and Overseas business declining.Operating profit decreased by 6.2% YoY to JPY2.4bn, impacted by FX losses and increased advertising and logistics costs.Consumer foods revenue increased YoY, while commercial foods decreased; processed food ingredients and chemical products saw YoY growth.

Riken Vitamin (4526 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

<ul><li>Revenue reached JPY95.6bn (+4.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY8.7bn (-6.9% YoY), and net income JPY9.4bn (+7.2% YoY).</li><li>FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY100.0bn (+4.6% YoY), operating profit JPY8.5bn (-2.6% YoY), net income JPY8.2bn (-12.7% YoY).</li><li>Medium-Term Management Plan 2027 targets revenue JPY110.0bn, operating profit JPY10.0bn, EBITDA JPY14.2bn, ROE 10% or higher.</li></ul>

Revenue reached JPY95.6bn (+4.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY8.7bn (-6.9% YoY), and net income JPY9.4bn (+7.2% YoY).FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY100.0bn (+4.6% YoY), operating profit JPY8.5bn (-2.6% YoY), net income JPY8.2bn (-12.7% YoY).Medium-Term Management Plan 2027 targets revenue JPY110.0bn, operating profit JPY10.0bn, EBITDA JPY14.2bn, ROE 10% or higher.

Riken Vitamin (4526 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Japan

Riken Vitamin Co., Ltd. produces foods, processed foods, seasonings, industry chemical products, and nutritional supplements such as vitamins.  The Company mainly produces seaweed related products and salad dressing.

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Riken Vitamin (4526 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/30 - Nishimatsuya Chain, Adastria, Strike, Riken Vitamin

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the...

Campbell Gunn

Leakage Report 4/26/17 - Names that Moved on Volume Yesterday, Days Before They Announce Earnings...

We have broken the volumes spikes into two groups 1- names where we could see some news and 2- names where there was no news to explain the volume...

Custom Products Group

December 2016 Review of Current Developments in Japan's Economy

"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data”...

Nowcast, Inc.