Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">NAB (NAB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minerals-260-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34601:1" rel="noopener">Minerals 260 (MI6 AU)</a>, andb<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: NAB (NAB AU), Codan (CDA AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), Minerals 260 (MI6 AU), andbSunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU).


Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>The copper price has stagnated for four months, struggling to maintain new highs, and recently slumped on reports that the U.S. maybe wavering on implementing more tariffs of the metal</li>
<li>BHP's price implies very aggressive copper price targets which we view as insufficiently incorporating the risks of a weakening AI-boom, low to no additional US tariffs and broader economic cyclicality </li>
<li>There is still significant downside not just to our valuation, which sits at a pre-AI-boom-inventory-imbalance-driven-parabolic-copper-surge level, but even to a moderate midpoint between our conservative outlook and the market price </li>
</ul>


The copper price has stagnated for four months, struggling to maintain new highs, and recently slumped on reports that the U.S. maybe wavering on implementing more tariffs of the metal
BHP's price implies very aggressive copper price targets which we view as insufficiently incorporating the risks of a weakening AI-boom, low to no additional US tariffs and broader economic cyclicality 
There is still significant downside not just to our valuation, which sits at a pre-AI-boom-inventory-imbalance-driven-parabolic-copper-surge level, but even to a moderate midpoint between our conservative outlook and the market price 


BHP: Risk In A Time Of Heroic Copper Assumptions

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

Podcast of business and financial stories, Behind the Money

Behind the Money

Podcast of business and financial stories

From hostile takeovers to C-suite intrigue, Behind the Money takes you inside the business and financial stories of the moment with reporting from Financial Times journalists around the world.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Lab-grown diamonds are becoming increasingly popular, posing a threat to the natural diamond industry</li><li>Companies like De Beers, a major player in the diamond mining sector, are facing challenges and potential sale due to the rise of lab-grown stones</li><li>China has been a key player in the synthetic diamond industry since the 1960s, initially focusing on industrial applications before expanding into jewelry-grade stones.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lab-grown diamonds are becoming increasingly popular, posing a threat to the natural diamond industryCompanies like De Beers, a major player in the diamond mining sector, are facing challenges and potential sale due to the rise of lab-grown stonesChina has been a key player in the synthetic diamond industry since the 1960s, initially focusing on industrial applications before expanding into jewelry-grade stones.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

How the diamond industry lost its sparkle

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of...

David Blennerhassett

BHP: Risk In A Time Of Heroic Copper Assumptions

We believe that BHP's current level assumes aggressive copper prices which insufficiently account for risks of an AI-boom slowdown, global copper...

Graeme Cunningham

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

How the diamond industry lost its sparkle

The rise of lab-grown diamonds is shaking up the traditional diamond industry, with De Beers facing challenges and potential sale, as China's...

Behind the Money

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of...

David Blennerhassett

BHP: Risk In A Time Of Heroic Copper Assumptions

We believe that BHP's current level assumes aggressive copper prices which insufficiently account for risks of an AI-boom slowdown, global copper...

Graeme Cunningham

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

​Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

How the diamond industry lost its sparkle

The rise of lab-grown diamonds is shaking up the traditional diamond industry, with De Beers facing challenges and potential sale, as China's...

Behind the Money

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.