Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.</li>
<li>Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.
Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).


Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Rio Tinto (RIO US)

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Breakouts Just Keep Coming $SPX $ARKX $ARKQ $XLY $XRT $ITB $IWO $QTUM $MCHI $XLP; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight $XLB $GDX $XME $REMX; Still...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Breakouts Just Keep Coming $SPX $ARKX $ARKQ $XLY $XRT $ITB $IWO $QTUM $MCHI $XLP; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight $XLB $GDX $XME $REMX; Still...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.