European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Kepco Engineering & Construction / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There are 6 adds and 5 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 12% and will result in a one-way trade of US$207m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 5x ADV.</li>
<li>Some of the inclusions have had BIG rallies over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking on those names in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There are 6 adds and 5 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 January.
Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 12% and will result in a one-way trade of US$207m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 5x ADV.
Some of the inclusions have had BIG rallies over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking on those names in the next few days.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened since mid-December.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (11 January): C.F.Alba, 48.9%; GBL, 36.3%; Heineken Holding, 19.5%; Industrivärden C, 14.3%; Investor B, 15.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 10.8%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened since mid-December.
Discounts to NAV (11 January): C.F.Alba, 48.9%; GBL, 36.3%; Heineken Holding, 19.5%; Industrivärden C, 14.3%; Investor B, 15.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 10.8%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: New Year‘23 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes

There are 6 adds & 5 deletes for the Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index tracked by the URA ETF. One-way turnover is in excess of...

Brian Freitas

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: New Year‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened since mid-December. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

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