Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The planned eToro IPO via SPAC merger with FinTech V was terminated in early July, due delayed regulatory process as well as poor market conditions</li>
<li>The now defunct SPAC deal had implied an eToro valuation in excess of USD10bn; post failed SPAC deal, its latest funding round implies a valuation range of USD5bn to USD6bn</li>
<li>Softbank made its eToro investment through the Vision Fund 2 in 4Q 2020; Softbank had been counting on the SPAC deal with FinTech V as its partial eToro exit strategy</li>
</ul>


The planned eToro IPO via SPAC merger with FinTech V was terminated in early July, due delayed regulatory process as well as poor market conditions
The now defunct SPAC deal had implied an eToro valuation in excess of USD10bn; post failed SPAC deal, its latest funding round implies a valuation range of USD5bn to USD6bn
Softbank made its eToro investment through the Vision Fund 2 in 4Q 2020; Softbank had been counting on the SPAC deal with FinTech V as its partial eToro exit strategy


Softbank (9984 JP) – EToro’s Funding “Down Round”

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carsome-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35913:1" rel="noopener">Carsome (CARSOME1 SP)</a>, Malaysia's used-car eCommerce/technology unicorn, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO filing for a dual listing on Nasdaq and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange</a>.</li>
<li>Carsome has a great ESG story to tell, but needs to be less humble about telling it because pre-IPO ESG messaging can impact IPO valuations, especially for transportation-related deals.</li>
<li>The centerpiece of Carsome's ESG story should be the important (but underappreciated) role of used car markets in decarbonising road transportation, a leading source of carbon emissions.</li>
</ul>



Carsome (CARSOME1 SP), Malaysia's used-car eCommerce/technology unicorn, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO filing for a dual listing on Nasdaq and Singapore Exchange.
Carsome has a great ESG story to tell, but needs to be less humble about telling it because pre-IPO ESG messaging can impact IPO valuations, especially for transportation-related deals.
The centerpiece of Carsome's ESG story should be the important (but underappreciated) role of used car markets in decarbonising road transportation, a leading source of carbon emissions.


Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>HOOD’s performance indicators are deteriorating.  Growth in funded accounts is not growing.  Monthly average users are declining, and ARPU is falling.  Margins remain negative and are declining.</li>
<li>The company’s main sources of revenue are from transactions in speculative instruments.  Options and crypto trading represent 80% of transaction revenue... in accounts that average $4,300 in size.</li>
<li>Small scale and lack of diversification leave it disadvantaged.   Further, it generates little fee income, such as asset management fees.  It is nearly entirely reliant on payment for order flow.</li>
</ul>


HOOD’s performance indicators are deteriorating.  Growth in funded accounts is not growing.  Monthly average users are declining, and ARPU is falling.  Margins remain negative and are declining.
The company’s main sources of revenue are from transactions in speculative instruments.  Options and crypto trading represent 80% of transaction revenue... in accounts that average $4,300 in size.
Small scale and lack of diversification leave it disadvantaged.   Further, it generates little fee income, such as asset management fees.  It is nearly entirely reliant on payment for order flow.


Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD):  Sell Short

<ul>
<li>This model uncovers companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business.  </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag Robinhood Mkts, Seagen, Zimmer Biomet, Cerence</li>
</ul>


This model uncovers companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business.  
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag Robinhood Mkts, Seagen, Zimmer Biomet, Cerence


Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Robinhood Mkts, Seagen, Zimmer Biomet, Cerence

United States

Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform. The Company offers brokerage and cash management applications such as stocks, exchange-traded funds, options, and cryptocurrency. Robinhood Markets serves clients in the United States.

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Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Softbank (9984 JP) – EToro’s Funding “Down Round”

Softbank fintech holding eToro had its IPO plans de-railed and now its latest funding efforts point to a "down round"; even at its lower valuation...

Victor Galliano

Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Carsome has reportedly filed for an IPO (dual Nasdaq/SGX listing), and has a great ESG story to tell investors including the role that used car...

Kyle Rudden

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD): Sell Short

We are concerned about HOOD's payment for order flow model, the reliance on speculative trading in small accounts and their lack of...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Robinhood Mkts, Seagen, Zimmer Biomet, Cerence

This model uncovers companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag Robinhood Mkts, Seagen, Zimmer Biomet, Cerence

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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