European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.</li>
<li>Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.</li>
<li>Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.</li>
</ul>


Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.
Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.
Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their the innovation scores and inclusion in the portfolio.  </li>
<li>The three companies are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson-831a1ab9-b291-4564-99b0-dc7f8d2b8175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26818:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ UN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondelez-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8111:1" rel="noopener">Mondelez International (MDLZ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qorvo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11965:1" rel="noopener">Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), which have the highest weighting in each portfolio</a>
</li>
<li>For the week the large cap portfolio was up 1.2%, the midcap was up 1.4% and the small cap was up 0.9%, all in US$ terms.  </li>
</ul>


We write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their the innovation scores and inclusion in the portfolio.  
The three companies are Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ UN) , Mondelez International (MDLZ US) and Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), which have the highest weighting in each portfolio

For the week the large cap portfolio was up 1.2%, the midcap was up 1.4% and the small cap was up 0.9%, all in US$ terms.  


How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) hosted a forward-looking investor day highlighting its attractive R&amp;D pipeline.</li><li>In the meantime, AFT’s operating business continues to perform strongly, with management reiterating FY27 guidance for revenue of &gt;NZ$300m, up &gt;+18% year-on-year, and EBIT of NZ$28m–NZ$32m (FB estimate: ~NZ$31m).</li><li>We retain OUTPERFORM, with the risk–reward still skewed to the upside.</li></ul>

AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) hosted a forward-looking investor day highlighting its attractive R&amp;D pipeline.In the meantime, AFT’s operating business continues to perform strongly, with management reiterating FY27 guidance for revenue of &gt;NZ$300m, up &gt;+18% year-on-year, and EBIT of NZ$28m–NZ$32m (FB estimate: ~NZ$31m).We retain OUTPERFORM, with the risk–reward still skewed to the upside.

AFT Pharmaceuticals Pipeline Prescribes Upside

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.</li>
<li>Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)</li>
</ul>


US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.
Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)


Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

<ul>
<li>Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.</li>
<li>BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.
Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.
BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

United States

Roche Holding AG develops and manufactures pharmaceutical and diagnostic products. The Company produces prescription drugs in the areas of cardiovascular, infectious, autoimmune, respiratory diseases, dermatology, metabolic disorders, oncology, transplantation, and the central nervous system. Roche Holding serves customers worldwide.

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Roche Holding (ROG SE)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

August brought fresh dispersion across Europe's dual-class shares, creating new relative-value opportunities while corporate actions remain an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

We assess how the three portfolios did for the first week and discuss about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly...

Pyari Menon

AFT Pharmaceuticals Pipeline Prescribes Upside

AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) hosted a forward-looking investor day highlighting its attractive R&D pipeline. In the meantime, AFT’s operating...

Forsyth Barr

Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

-July widened dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe, yet selective convergence persisted beneath the surface. Structural anomalies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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