European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.</li>
<li>MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.
MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.
Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.</li>
<li>Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.
Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.
Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

<ul>
<li>MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.</li>
</ul>


MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

United States

Roche Holding AG develops and manufactures pharmaceutical and diagnostic products. The Company produces prescription drugs in the areas of cardiovascular, infectious, autoimmune, respiratory diseases, dermatology, metabolic disorders, oncology, transplantation, and the central nervous system. Roche Holding serves customers worldwide.

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Roche Holding (ROG SE)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

Dual-class spreads tightened in November as liquidity improved. MFE, Grifols and Henkel lead convergence opportunities, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October'25 Report

European dual-class spreads diverged in October; liquidity and control themes dominate. Favor convergence longs (MFE, Grifols, Henkel, VW), fade...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

This month’s color: MFE A/B narrows on ProSieben; VW prefs outpace ords; Atlas Copco & BMW tighten; Carlsberg B and SSAB B widen; TIM savings bid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe, share-price spreads have mainly tightened. Convergence plays: MFE A/B as A votes rise; TIM savings...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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