Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Last week's Compass (May 19) was titled "SPX and QQQ Testing 8-day EMAs; Buy the Pullback," and the market bottomed that day.</li>
<li>We saw significant FUD about rising oil, yields, and the DXY in recent weeks, but we've been discussing weekly since our May 5th Compass how we were not overly concerned</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Last week's Compass (May 19) was titled "SPX and QQQ Testing 8-day EMAs; Buy the Pullback," and the market bottomed that day.
We saw significant FUD about rising oil, yields, and the DXY in recent weeks, but we've been discussing weekly since our May 5th Compass how we were not overly concerned


RSP, QQEW, Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil and Gasoline

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.</li><li>Last month (ending 12/31), the WTR AI Index was up 0.5% M/M, which was a significant improvement compared with the 7% decline in November.</li><li>This also compares favorably with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.7%). </li></ul>

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.Last month (ending 12/31), the WTR AI Index was up 0.5% M/M, which was a significant improvement compared with the 7% decline in November.This also compares favorably with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.7%). 

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - January 6, 2026

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>We expect no changes for the September 2026 index rebal event, though SpaceX's free-float increase should still drive roughly US$13bn of one-way flow.</li>
<li>We expect three ADDs and four DELs at the December 2026 annual reconstitution, with DELs necessarily exceeding ADDs by one to bring member count back to 100.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.
We expect no changes for the September 2026 index rebal event, though SpaceX's free-float increase should still drive roughly US$13bn of one-way flow.
We expect three ADDs and four DELs at the December 2026 annual reconstitution, with DELs necessarily exceeding ADDs by one to bring member count back to 100.


Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

United States

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. operates as a space systems company. The Company manufactures spacecraft and satellite components, as well as satellite launch and on-orbit management services. Rocket Lab USA serves customers in the United States.

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Rocket Lab USA (RKLB US)

RSP, QQEW, Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil and Gasoline

$RSP $QQEW Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil $USO and Gasoline $UGA. FUD surrounding oil, yields, and...

Vermilion Research

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - January 6, 2026

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.

Water Tower Research

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

Paramount Skydance (PSKY US) will move its listing to the NYSE on 6 October 2026, and following its 21 September settlement, its acquisition of WBD...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

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