Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yamaha Motor share sale by Toyota, Yamaha Corp and MS&amp;AD may take time to clear, but the outlook for Yamaha Motor is improving. Expect Yamaha Corp strength on buyback expectations.</li>
<li>Ueda signalling a slightly hawkish tone on Friday should be good for banks and utilities, but less good for exporters, tourism related and real estate.</li>
<li>6963 Rohm is starting to look interesting again with a few upcoming drivers which should help it rebound, including next weeks NKY225 rebalance announcement.</li>
</ul>


Yamaha Motor share sale by Toyota, Yamaha Corp and MS&amp;AD may take time to clear, but the outlook for Yamaha Motor is improving. Expect Yamaha Corp strength on buyback expectations.
Ueda signalling a slightly hawkish tone on Friday should be good for banks and utilities, but less good for exporters, tourism related and real estate.
6963 Rohm is starting to look interesting again with a few upcoming drivers which should help it rebound, including next weeks NKY225 rebalance announcement.


Japan Morning Connection: Yamaha Motor, Rohm, Kawasaki Heavy

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rohm’s cyclical turning points in revenue typically lag the turn METI production %YoY less inventory % YoY for electronic devices and components by 12 months.</li>
<li>Investors were disappointed with Q1 results, but the company cleanly outperformed most peers in the power semiconductor space, and recovery now looks inevitable. </li>
<li>We believe the fair value of shares to be around ¥3,300, 2x the current price, but investors should ask, “When?” Not “How much.”</li>
</ul>


Rohm’s cyclical turning points in revenue typically lag the turn METI production %YoY less inventory % YoY for electronic devices and components by 12 months.
Investors were disappointed with Q1 results, but the company cleanly outperformed most peers in the power semiconductor space, and recovery now looks inevitable. 
We believe the fair value of shares to be around ¥3,300, 2x the current price, but investors should ask, “When?” Not “How much.”


<ul>
<li>Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.</li>
<li>Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> rebound off yesterdays weak price action.</li>
<li>Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda's speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.</li>
</ul>


Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.
Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of Sumitomo Forestry rebound off yesterdays weak price action.
Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda's speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.


Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake</li>
<li>The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"</li>
<li>While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake
The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"
While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Japan

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Yamaha Motor, Rohm, Kawasaki Heavy

Yamaha Motor outlook improving with share sale, Ueda's hawkish tone favors banks and utilities, Rohm showing rebound potential with upcoming drivers.

Andrew Jackson

Rohm (6963): Search for the Bottom

Growth of production less growth of inventory turned positive last September, which could lead to an upturn in Rohm’s sales by the third quarter. ...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Could a Japan "Megaquake" Disrupt Semis?

Japan's Meteorological Agency predicted that a catastrophic earthquake is now many times more likely than before. This insight examines what that...

Jim Handy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Yamaha Motor, Rohm, Kawasaki Heavy

​Yamaha Motor outlook improving with share sale, Ueda's hawkish tone favors banks and utilities, Rohm showing rebound potential with upcoming drivers.

Andrew Jackson

Rohm (6963): Search for the Bottom

Growth of production less growth of inventory turned positive last September, which could lead to an upturn in Rohm’s sales by the third quarter. ...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

​Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Could a Japan "Megaquake" Disrupt Semis?

Japan's Meteorological Agency predicted that a catastrophic earthquake is now many times more likely than before. This insight examines what that...

Jim Handy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

Yamaha Motor outlook improving with share sale, Ueda's hawkish tone favors banks and utilities, Rohm showing rebound potential with upcoming drivers.

Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...