Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The one likely inclusion is therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>. But there is more fun afoot with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The two stocks - of totally different sectors - interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns. </li>
</ul>


The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP). 
The one likely inclusion is therefore Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP). But there is more fun afoot with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP). 
The two stocks - of totally different sectors - interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns. 


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Use of quantum technology expected to improve electrical die sorting (EDS) performance by several percentage points.</li>
<li>Collaboration with Quanmatic aims at full-scale introduction in April, the first month of FY Mar-25. </li>
<li>Buy for long-term growth led by power semiconductors with margin expansion from efficiency gains.</li>
</ul>


Use of quantum technology expected to improve electrical die sorting (EDS) performance by several percentage points.
Collaboration with Quanmatic aims at full-scale introduction in April, the first month of FY Mar-25. 
Buy for long-term growth led by power semiconductors with margin expansion from efficiency gains.


Rohm (6963 JP): Quantum Process Optimization

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Overseas: SPX +1.4%; The Fed’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates four cuts in 2025</li>
<li>Today: NKY Futs -0.2% v cash. JPY143; KIshida shuffles Cabinet; Recruit 200bn yen share buyback; Suzuki to split stock</li>
<li>JapanX: Rohm's multi-billion-yen investment in SiC power chips takes advantage of government support for chip industry</li>
</ul>


Overseas: SPX +1.4%; The Fed’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates four cuts in 2025
Today: NKY Futs -0.2% v cash. JPY143; KIshida shuffles Cabinet; Recruit 200bn yen share buyback; Suzuki to split stock
JapanX: Rohm's multi-billion-yen investment in SiC power chips takes advantage of government support for chip industry


Ohayo Japan | Record Highs on Dot Plot; Rohm's Big Bet on SiC

<ul>
<li>Rohm's share price was up 6% on Friday, December 8, on the news that the Japanese government will subsidize its collaboration with Toshiba in power semiconductors.</li>
<li>The subsidy will amount to one-third of the ¥388.3 billion yen the two companies plan to invest in Silicon Carbide and Silicon devices for the electric vehicle and other industries.</li>
<li>Rohm hit bottom on October 31, management cut FY Mar-24 guidance on November 1 and the market is now looking to recovery. Toshiba will be delisted on December 20.</li>
</ul>


Rohm's share price was up 6% on Friday, December 8, on the news that the Japanese government will subsidize its collaboration with Toshiba in power semiconductors.
The subsidy will amount to one-third of the ¥388.3 billion yen the two companies plan to invest in Silicon Carbide and Silicon devices for the electric vehicle and other industries.
Rohm hit bottom on October 31, management cut FY Mar-24 guidance on November 1 and the market is now looking to recovery. Toshiba will be delisted on December 20.


Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-e-s-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2402:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui E&amp;S (7003 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsui-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6553:1" rel="noopener">Matsui Securities (8628 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> will be added at half the planned PAF since the trading value is low compared to the expected index weight.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 1-17 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 1.2-16.5 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Mercari (4385 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP) and Nitori (9843 JP) will replace Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003 JP) and Matsui Securities (8628 JP) in the Nikkei 225.
As expected, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) will be added at half the planned PAF since the trading value is low compared to the expected index weight.
Passive trackers need to buy between 1-17 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 1.2-16.5 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT

Japan

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 review now threatens to be 1 small ADD and 1 small DELETE but two-way flow of US$9bn+. The fun is on Fast Retailing and...

Travis Lundy

Rohm (6963 JP): Quantum Process Optimization

Work with Quanmatic to improve electrical die sorting efficiency by several percent. Buy for growth driven by power semiconductors for EVs and...

Scott Foster

Ohayo Japan | Record Highs on Dot Plot; Rohm's Big Bet on SiC

The Fed's 'dot plot' suggests four rate cuts in 2025. In Japan, Rohm invests in SiC power chips and looks key beneficiary of structural EV growth

Mark Chadwick

Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

Rohm share price up on METI subsidy for power device collaboration with Toshiba. Profit to bottom as inventory cleared in 2H of FY Mar-24, then...

Scott Foster

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT

The adds are broadly flat since announcement of the changes. The deletes are higher and short interest has continued to increase. The stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 review now threatens to be 1 small ADD and 1 small DELETE but two-way flow of US$9bn+. The fun is on Fast Retailing and...

Travis Lundy

Rohm (6963 JP): Quantum Process Optimization

Work with Quanmatic to improve electrical die sorting efficiency by several percent. Buy for growth driven by power semiconductors for EVs and...

Scott Foster

Ohayo Japan | Record Highs on Dot Plot; Rohm's Big Bet on SiC

​The Fed's 'dot plot' suggests four rate cuts in 2025. In Japan, Rohm invests in SiC power chips and looks key beneficiary of structural EV growth

Mark Chadwick

Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

Rohm share price up on METI subsidy for power device collaboration with Toshiba. Profit to bottom as inventory cleared in 2H of FY Mar-24, then...

Scott Foster

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT

The adds are broadly flat since announcement of the changes. The deletes are higher and short interest has continued to increase. The stocks with...

Brian Freitas

The Fed's 'dot plot' suggests four rate cuts in 2025. In Japan, Rohm invests in SiC power chips and looks key beneficiary of structural EV growth