Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal's Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWS AU)</a> is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox (FOXA US)</a>. And Fox is preferable over NWS' print media business. </li>
</ul>


There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.

Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal's Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with Pendal Group (PDL AU) 

News Corp (NWS AU) is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to Fox (FOXA US). And Fox is preferable over NWS' print media business. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

Travis Lundy

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> announced salutary H1 results on Nov 1. The numbers were good, the innards suggested cost pressures. The revised forecasts suggested conservativeness, or risk of weakness.</li>
<li>The company also announced a stock buyback. It's only about 2% of shares out, which is 5-10% of Real World Float, but the stock has a low-beta risk character.</li>
<li>And it is quite cheap on a capital construct basis. EV/EBITDA to Mar23 on conservative guidance is 4.6x. Adj EV/EBITDA Mar23e deducing securities and net receivables? 3.7x. </li>
</ul>



ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) announced salutary H1 results on Nov 1. The numbers were good, the innards suggested cost pressures. The revised forecasts suggested conservativeness, or risk of weakness.
The company also announced a stock buyback. It's only about 2% of shares out, which is 5-10% of Real World Float, but the stock has a low-beta risk character.
And it is quite cheap on a capital construct basis. EV/EBITDA to Mar23 on conservative guidance is 4.6x. Adj EV/EBITDA Mar23e deducing securities and net receivables? 3.7x. 


Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.</li>
<li>I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).</li>
<li>The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 


Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>FY Mar-22 sales and profits were well ahead of guidance. Management is forecasting further growth this year, but mostly in 1H.</li>
<li>Margins are under pressure from rising production costs and depreciation, but cash flow and the balance sheet are strong.</li>
<li>Gearing to vehicle electrification and should provide protection on the downside and support long-term growth. </li>
</ul>


FY Mar-22 sales and profits were well ahead of guidance. Management is forecasting further growth this year, but mostly in 1H.
Margins are under pressure from rising production costs and depreciation, but cash flow and the balance sheet are strong.
Gearing to vehicle electrification and should provide protection on the downside and support long-term growth. 


Rohm (6963 JP): Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Buy

Japan

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)

Rohm's H1 results were good, goosed by FX, and hampered by cost rises. H2 looks conservative. It's cheap, there's a buyback, and longer-term a...

Travis Lundy

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

The September Nikkei 225 Rebal announcement is ~ 6 weeks away. Assuming the current plans go through, I see three adds, three deletes. The adds are...

Travis Lundy

Rohm (6963 JP): Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Buy

Guiding for further growth in 1H of FY Mar-23, but visibility falls off after that. EV and SiC gearing are long-term positives. Strong cash flow...

Scott Foster

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