Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Hamamatsu Photonics has dropped back 11% from the ¥7,050 reached on February 15, but remains expensive at 52.5x our EPS estimate for FY Sep-21 and 39x our estimate for FY Sep-23, both of which are above management's guidance.</p><p>Operating profit was up 3.4% year-on-year and net profit down slightly on a 5.6% increase in sales in the three months to December - much better than management's COVID-conservative forecast for 1H, but obviously not indicating an improvement in profitability.</p><p>The expansion of valuation multiples over the past year has been excessive, in our estimation, removing incentive to buy the shares. Take profits or hold on a 5-year view.</p>

Hamamatsu Photonics has dropped back 11% from the ¥7,050 reached on February 15, but remains expensive at 52.5x our EPS estimate for FY Sep-21 and 39x our estimate for FY Sep-23, both of which are above management's guidance.Operating profit was up 3.4% year-on-year and net profit down slightly on a 5.6% increase in sales in the three months to December - much better than management's COVID-conservative forecast for 1H, but obviously not indicating an improvement in profitability.The expansion of valuation multiples over the past year has been excessive, in our estimation, removing incentive to buy the shares. Take profits or hold on a 5-year view.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Likely to Consolidate Recent Gains

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.</p>

Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

<p>After peaking at ¥12,140 on January 21, Rohm has run into profit taking. Is this justified?</p><p>Operating profit was up 38.8% year-on-year on a 5.8% increase in sales in the three months to December and FY Mar-21 sales and operating profit guidance were raised by 5.9% and 39.1%, respectively.</p><p>The large size of the upward revision can be attributed to overly cautious previous guidance, strong demand for semiconductors for auto and IT applications, high capacity utilization and cost cutting.</p><p>On a3-year view, rising demand for the company's silicon carbide power devices for electric vehicles should support a return to peak operating profit.</p><p>Last August, we wrote that patient investors could be rewarded with a doubling of the share price. At ¥11,100, the shares are up 64% since then. Potential upside to our target is now 22%. </p>

After peaking at ¥12,140 on January 21, Rohm has run into profit taking. Is this justified?Operating profit was up 38.8% year-on-year on a 5.8% increase in sales in the three months to December and FY Mar-21 sales and operating profit guidance were raised by 5.9% and 39.1%, respectively.The large size of the upward revision can be attributed to overly cautious previous guidance, strong demand for semiconductors for auto and IT applications, high capacity utilization and cost cutting.On a3-year view, rising demand for the company's silicon carbide power devices for electric vehicles should support a return to peak operating profit.Last August, we wrote that patient investors could be rewarded with a doubling of the share price. At ¥11,100, the shares are up 64% since then. Potential upside to our target is now 22%. 

Rohm (6963): Big Upward Revision, Significant Upside Potential Remains

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 1st FEBRUARY •</strong></p></div><div><p>Of Monday's 76 results announcements, 79% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.2% on average and a 2.6 percentage point decline in operating margins. 11% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  65% of the 48 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively and the average Forecast/Revision score was +2.6 points.</p></div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Monday's best and worst large-cap pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM (6963 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi (4507 JP)</a>. We would also note the declining momentum at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/154/original/2021-02-02_05-32-51.png?1612211584" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186154"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/155/original/2021-02-02_05-33-53.png?1612211646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186155"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/156/original/2021-02-02_05-34-39.png?1612211691" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186156"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/157/original/2021-02-02_05-35-09.png?1612211734" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186157"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">    Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 1st FEBRUARY •Of Monday's 76 results announcements, 79% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.2% on average and a 2.6 percentage point decline in operating margins. 11% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  65% of the 48 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively and the average Forecast/Revision score was +2.6 points.• BEST &amp; WORST •Monday's best and worst large-cap pairing is ROHM (6963 JP) and Shionogi (4507 JP). We would also note the declining momentum at Lasertec (6920 JP) and Nintendo (7974 JP).    Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​01 - Rohm, Shionogi..

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

<p>Stock markets around the world have been reaching record levels, thanks to the unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial markets by the advanced nations’ central banks in a bid to offset the economic damage caused by COVID-19.  In Japan, too, the Topix Index finished 2020 at 1804.68, just off its high-point for the year and up a very modest 4.8% YoY after plummeting around 500 points in March.</p>
<p>For investors in Japanese bank stocks, however, it was another year of pain: the Topix Bank Index closed 2020 down 21.7% YoY.  Moreover, just 5 bank stocks out of the total of 92 showed positive gains YoY.  All 7 major Japanese banks showed YoY declines: the ‘best-performer’ was down 21.1% YoY, with the average major bank YoY decline exceeding 25%.  By the end of 2020, 13 Japanese bank stocks had lost over one-third of their value, although they had been considerably lower earlier in the year.</p>
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<p></p>
</section>
<p>2021 commences with bank lending at near record-high levels after a record surge in lending, a mountain of cash on deposit that the banks are struggling to deploy profitably, exceptionally low loan to deposit (LDR) ratios, margins under pressure, profits under pressure and, for many banks, dividends under pressure as well.  None of this is likely to boost investor confidence in Japanese bank stocks.</p>
<p>Business models need to be reinvented to properly incorporate the new digital era, branches amalgamated or closed, and staff reduced.  This will take time and be costly.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, two banks have already suggested that they will likely make consolidated net losses in FY3/3021, with others perhaps to follow as we approach the end of the fiscal year in March.</p>
<p>2021 will also see a handful of regional bank mergers; indeed, this has already started with the first on 1 January 2021, creating the Daishi Hokuetsu Bank (part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daishi-hokuetsu-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27533:1" rel="noopener">Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)</a> ).  While these will be welcomed by the Suga Administration, which is actively encouraging a reduction in the number of regional banks, especially in the more rural parts of the country, there is no guarantee that the surviving entities will be any more profitable or efficient than their predecessors.</p>
<p>Then there is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause social lockdowns, economic disruption, and financial uncertainty aside from its devastating impact on the health and wellbeing of humankind.  All of this still needs to be properly discounted in Japanese bank share prices.  We anticipate further share price weakness in many Japanese banks in 2021.</p>
<p>“<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.</p>

Stock markets around the world have been reaching record levels, thanks to the unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial markets by the advanced nations’ central banks in a bid to offset the economic damage caused by COVID-19.  In Japan, too, the Topix Index finished 2020 at 1804.68, just off its high-point for the year and up a very modest 4.8% YoY after plummeting around 500 points in March.
For investors in Japanese bank stocks, however, it was another year of pain: the Topix Bank Index closed 2020 down 21.7% YoY.  Moreover, just 5 bank stocks out of the total of 92 showed positive gains YoY.  All 7 major Japanese banks showed YoY declines: the ‘best-performer’ was down 21.1% YoY, with the average major bank YoY decline exceeding 25%.  By the end of 2020, 13 Japanese bank stocks had lost over one-third of their value, although they had been considerably lower earlier in the year.




2021 commences with bank lending at near record-high levels after a record surge in lending, a mountain of cash on deposit that the banks are struggling to deploy profitably, exceptionally low loan to deposit (LDR) ratios, margins under pressure, profits under pressure and, for many banks, dividends under pressure as well.  None of this is likely to boost investor confidence in Japanese bank stocks.
Business models need to be reinvented to properly incorporate the new digital era, branches amalgamated or closed, and staff reduced.  This will take time and be costly.
Meanwhile, two banks have already suggested that they will likely make consolidated net losses in FY3/3021, with others perhaps to follow as we approach the end of the fiscal year in March.
2021 will also see a handful of regional bank mergers; indeed, this has already started with the first on 1 January 2021, creating the Daishi Hokuetsu Bank (part of the Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) ).  While these will be welcomed by the Suga Administration, which is actively encouraging a reduction in the number of regional banks, especially in the more rural parts of the country, there is no guarantee that the surviving entities will be any more profitable or efficient than their predecessors.
Then there is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause social lockdowns, economic disruption, and financial uncertainty aside from its devastating impact on the health and wellbeing of humankind.  All of this still needs to be properly discounted in Japanese bank share prices.  We anticipate further share price weakness in many Japanese banks in 2021.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japan

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Likely to Consolidate Recent Gains

The shares have dropped back 11% since mid-February, but remain expensive in comparison with historical valuations ranges. Multiple expansion...

Scott Foster

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Will Saturday's Japan earthquake further disrupt the semiconductor supply chain? Early reports seem tame enough, but automobile manufacturers are...

Jim Handy

Rohm (6963): Big Upward Revision, Significant Upside Potential Remains

The shares are consolidating after rising by more than 60% since August. But growing auto and IT demand should support a return to peak OP and...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/01 - Rohm, Shionogi..

Of Monday's 76 results announcements, 79% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.2% on average and a 2.6...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Banks: Ever Lower

For investors in Japanese bank stocks, 2020 was another year of pain. The sector fell almost 22% YoY; only 5 bank stocks out of 92 registered YoY...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Likely to Consolidate Recent Gains

The shares have dropped back 11% since mid-February, but remain expensive in comparison with historical valuations ranges. Multiple expansion...

Scott Foster

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Will Saturday's Japan earthquake further disrupt the semiconductor supply chain? Early reports seem tame enough, but automobile manufacturers are...

Jim Handy

Rohm (6963): Big Upward Revision, Significant Upside Potential Remains

The shares are consolidating after rising by more than 60% since August. But growing auto and IT demand should support a return to peak OP and...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​01 - Rohm, Shionogi..

Of Monday's 76 results announcements, 79% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.2% on average and a 2.6...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Banks: Ever Lower

For investors in Japanese bank stocks, 2020 was another year of pain. The sector fell almost 22% YoY; only 5 bank stocks out of 92 registered YoY...

J. Brian Waterhouse

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/01 - Rohm, Shionogi..