Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.</li>
<li>I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).</li>
<li>The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 


Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY Mar-22 sales and profits were well ahead of guidance. Management is forecasting further growth this year, but mostly in 1H.</li>
<li>Margins are under pressure from rising production costs and depreciation, but cash flow and the balance sheet are strong.</li>
<li>Gearing to vehicle electrification and should provide protection on the downside and support long-term growth. </li>
</ul>


FY Mar-22 sales and profits were well ahead of guidance. Management is forecasting further growth this year, but mostly in 1H.
Margins are under pressure from rising production costs and depreciation, but cash flow and the balance sheet are strong.
Gearing to vehicle electrification and should provide protection on the downside and support long-term growth. 


Rohm (6963 JP): Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Buy

<ul>
<li>A strong earthquake hit Japan 100km south of the 2011 Fukishima earthquake</li>
<li>Yesterday's earthquake was about one fortieth the power of the 2011 quake</li>
<li>Four or five fabs might be impacted.  Results were not yet been reported as this Insight was being written, 15 hours after the event</li>
</ul>


A strong earthquake hit Japan 100km south of the 2011 Fukishima earthquake
Yesterday's earthquake was about one fortieth the power of the 2011 quake
Four or five fabs might be impacted.  Results were not yet been reported as this Insight was being written, 15 hours after the event


Will Japan's Earthquake Worsen Semiconductor Shortage?

<ul>
<li>Geared to rising demand for semiconductor and other industrial polishing services in general and rapid growth in the production of advanced power semiconductors in particular.</li>
<li>Sales and operating profit could double over the next 5 years, but dilution from capital raising might hold EPS growth to 50%.</li>
<li>Selling at 9.2x EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. 10x potential EPS implies 65% upside. Risks include small market cap and potentially volatile quarterly earnings.</li>
</ul>


Geared to rising demand for semiconductor and other industrial polishing services in general and rapid growth in the production of advanced power semiconductors in particular.
Sales and operating profit could double over the next 5 years, but dilution from capital raising might hold EPS growth to 50%.
Selling at 9.2x EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. 10x potential EPS implies 65% upside. Risks include small market cap and potentially volatile quarterly earnings.


Mipox (5381 JP): Participation in Power Semiconductor Consortium a Growth Driver

Japan

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

The September Nikkei 225 Rebal announcement is ~ 6 weeks away. Assuming the current plans go through, I see three adds, three deletes. The adds are...

Travis Lundy

Rohm (6963 JP): Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Buy

Guiding for further growth in 1H of FY Mar-23, but visibility falls off after that. EV and SiC gearing are long-term positives. Strong cash flow...

Scott Foster

Will Japan's Earthquake Worsen Semiconductor Shortage?

Will last night's Japan earthquake worsen the current tightness in the chip market? A few companies are near the epicenter, but the quake's...

Jim Handy

Mipox (5381 JP): Participation in Power Semiconductor Consortium a Growth Driver

Participation in NEDO power semiconductor consortium could support 2X sales and 50% EPS growth. Potentially volatile small cap, but selling at 9x...

Scott Foster

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