Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723) , and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707) , Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703) 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March Review - Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

<ul>
<li>Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a>. </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707), Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703). 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW us to keep abreast!
</li>
<li>
OVERNIGHT:  BETA bid with Commodities &amp;Tech leading; Momentum &amp; Value sold; SOX +15%WoW; China 20-point plan on COVID-19 easing;  FTX Bankruptcy - CEO flees the US. Democrats retain Senate-IRA safe. </li>
<li>
JAPAN:  NKY Futs  -0.5% vs Cash; Further yen strength with USDJPY ¥138.81; Bain to lift JP invest &gt;$40b-focus is Kansai tech cos; No new Softbank buyback; Rakuten losing mobile subs</li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW us to keep abreast!


OVERNIGHT:  BETA bid with Commodities &amp;Tech leading; Momentum &amp; Value sold; SOX +15%WoW; China 20-point plan on COVID-19 easing;  FTX Bankruptcy - CEO flees the US. Democrats retain Senate-IRA safe. 

JAPAN:  NKY Futs  -0.5% vs Cash; Further yen strength with USDJPY ¥138.81; Bain to lift JP invest &gt;$40b-focus is Kansai tech cos; No new Softbank buyback; Rakuten losing mobile subs


Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal's Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWS AU)</a> is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox (FOXA US)</a>. And Fox is preferable over NWS' print media business. </li>
</ul>


There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.

Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal's Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with Pendal Group (PDL AU) 

News Corp (NWS AU) is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to Fox (FOXA US). And Fox is preferable over NWS' print media business. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> announced salutary H1 results on Nov 1. The numbers were good, the innards suggested cost pressures. The revised forecasts suggested conservativeness, or risk of weakness.</li>
<li>The company also announced a stock buyback. It's only about 2% of shares out, which is 5-10% of Real World Float, but the stock has a low-beta risk character.</li>
<li>And it is quite cheap on a capital construct basis. EV/EBITDA to Mar23 on conservative guidance is 4.6x. Adj EV/EBITDA Mar23e deducing securities and net receivables? 3.7x. </li>
</ul>



ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) announced salutary H1 results on Nov 1. The numbers were good, the innards suggested cost pressures. The revised forecasts suggested conservativeness, or risk of weakness.
The company also announced a stock buyback. It's only about 2% of shares out, which is 5-10% of Real World Float, but the stock has a low-beta risk character.
And it is quite cheap on a capital construct basis. EV/EBITDA to Mar23 on conservative guidance is 4.6x. Adj EV/EBITDA Mar23e deducing securities and net receivables? 3.7x. 


Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)

Japan

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Nikkei 225 March Review - Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

One month of data to go for the first March Nikkei 225 review in many, many, years. Oriental Land remains the top impact buy name, and it is quite...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Updated Nikkei 225 Leaderboard for the March 2023 review. 10 weeks of data left til the cutoff. The top 3 ADDs are unch'd since Sep. The 3rd-ranked...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)

Rohm's H1 results were good, goosed by FX, and hampered by cost rises. H2 looks conservative. It's cheap, there's a buyback, and longer-term a...

Travis Lundy

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