Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Capital Markets

<p>We met up with Rojukiss' entire C-Suite prior to the IPO before arriving with more useful information around the company and its upcoming listing.</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Valuation. </strong>We value Rojukiss at Bt13.5/sh using DCF method and Bt17.5/sh using relative valuation.</li>
<li>
<strong>Management's vision. </strong>Rojukiss' C-Suite is populated by L'oreal veterans who aim to emulate the French giant on a smaller scale. The strategy is asset-light with OEMs responsible for flexible manufacturing and Rojukiss on marketing and distribution.</li>
<li>
<strong>More color on the industry.</strong> During the pandemic, the industry's spending tilted more towards hair care and eyelash-related products.</li>
<li>
<strong>Company-specific highlights. </strong>The company's cheaper Sis2Sis brand is a market leader in lipsticks and ranks second in the mascara business.</li>
</ul>

We met up with Rojukiss' entire C-Suite prior to the IPO before arriving with more useful information around the company and its upcoming listing.

Valuation. We value Rojukiss at Bt13.5/sh using DCF method and Bt17.5/sh using relative valuation.

Management's vision. Rojukiss' C-Suite is populated by L'oreal veterans who aim to emulate the French giant on a smaller scale. The strategy is asset-light with OEMs responsible for flexible manufacturing and Rojukiss on marketing and distribution.

More color on the industry. During the pandemic, the industry's spending tilted more towards hair care and eyelash-related products.

Company-specific highlights. The company's cheaper Sis2Sis brand is a market leader in lipsticks and ranks second in the mascara business.


IPO Radar: Rojukiss Aspires to Become L'Oréal of Thailand

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-pm-muhyiddin-steadily-gains-a-reputation-for-quiet-competence" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41634" rel="noopener">Malaysia: PM Muhyiddin Steadily Gains a Reputation for Quiet Competence,</a> CrossASEAN Cheif Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros in on Malaysian politics with PM scoring important wins.</p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-retail-crc-tb-buy-for-looming-recovery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41669" rel="noopener">Central Retail (CRC TB) - Buy for Looming Recovery,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Thailand's leading retailers and finds a brighter few months ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-simmering-recovery-afoot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41690" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ) - Simmering Recovery Afoot,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest car, motorcycle, and heavy equipment player and sees better days ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-indosari-corpindo-roti-ij-the-breadmaker-cometh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40374" rel="noopener">Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - The Breadmaker Cometh </a>CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread producer. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/unilever-unvr-covid-19-beneficiary-and-discount-to-huvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41525" rel="noopener">Unilever (UNVR): COVID-19 Beneficiary and Discount to HUVR,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> takes a look at one of Indonesia's largest consumer staples players. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sampoerna-hmsp-losing-from-higher-excise-tax" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41521" rel="noopener">Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in one of Indonesia'slargest cigarette companies and sees some further risk to margins, favouring competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-central-asia-hunkering-down-is-not-helping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41611" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia – Hunkering Down Is Not Helping,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> takes a look at Indonesia's best quality private bank and finds it having tough going. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-rojukiss-a-korean-skincare-high-flyer-of-the-asean-region" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41556" rel="noopener">IPO Radar: Rojukiss, a Korean Skincare High-Flyer of the ASEAN Region,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> zeros in on the IPO of skincare player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rojukiss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29210:1" rel="noopener">Rojukiss (KISS TB).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/stubworld-would-jardines-move-back-to-hk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41692" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Would Jardines Move Back To HK?</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> and asks whether it may consider moving its domicile back to Hong Kong. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/accordia-golf-trust-deal-gets-more-complicated" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41628" rel="noopener">Accordia Golf Trust Deal Gets More Complicated,</a> events driven specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits this lingering privatisation situation.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/all-undemanding-valuation-and-good-growth-prospects-in-shunned-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41756" rel="noopener">ALL: Undemanding Valuation and Good Growth Prospects in Shunned Sector,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/all-inspire-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29177:1" rel="noopener">All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-good-performance-has-already-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41656" rel="noopener">ASIAN: Good Performance Has Already Priced In,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> downgrade our recommendation to ‘SELL’ from ‘BUY’ with a new target price for 2021E at Bt7.20 (from Bt6.0).</p><div><div id="ember6523">
<div id="ember6524">
<span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delta-covid-19-impact-surprisingly-turned-positive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41672" rel="noopener">DELTA: Covid-19 Impact Surprisingly Turned Positive,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a><span> maintains a HOLD rating on </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a><span> with a new 2021E target price of Bt84.00, up from Bt56.50.</span>
</div>
<div></div>
</div></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-expect-earnings-to-grow-yoy-in-2020-but-has-mostly-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41698" rel="noopener">SYNEX: Expect Earnings to Grow YoY in 2020 but Has Mostly Priced In</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synnex-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8077:1" rel="noopener">Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB)</a> and expect earnings to grow 15%YoY in 2020E amid negative environment in overall spending induced by global widespread of coronavirus. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/philippine-bank-asset-quality-reported-versus-reality-and-relative-value" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41710" rel="noopener">Philippine Bank Asset Quality: Reported Versus Reality and Relative Value,</a> Credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> revisits the Philippine banks and sees some potentially heightened risks ahead.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rizal-commercial-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23143:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-earnings-flash-h1-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41714" rel="noopener">Sritex - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:1350" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> Credit Specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> reports back on results from Indonesia's leading textile player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japfa-comfeed-earnings-flash-h1-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41715" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:1350" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> Credit Specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> comments on results from chicken player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ).</a></p>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Macro InsightsIn Malaysia: PM Muhyiddin Steadily Gains a Reputation for Quiet Competence, CrossASEAN Cheif Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros in on Malaysian politics with PM scoring important wins.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Central Retail (CRC TB) - Buy for Looming Recovery, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Thailand's leading retailers and finds a brighter few months ahead. In Astra International (ASII IJ) - Simmering Recovery Afoot,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest car, motorcycle, and heavy equipment player and sees better days ahead. In Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - The Breadmaker Cometh CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread producer. In Unilever (UNVR): COVID-19 Beneficiary and Discount to HUVR, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko takes a look at one of Indonesia's largest consumer staples players. In Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko zeros in one of Indonesia'slargest cigarette companies and sees some further risk to margins, favouring competitor Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ).In Bank Central Asia – Hunkering Down Is Not Helping,Thomas J. Monaco takes a look at Indonesia's best quality private bank and finds it having tough going. In IPO Radar: Rojukiss, a Korean Skincare High-Flyer of the ASEAN Region, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA zeros in on the IPO of skincare player Rojukiss (KISS TB).In StubWorld: Would Jardines Move Back To HK?, David Blennerhassett zeros in on Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) and asks whether it may consider moving its domicile back to Hong Kong. In Accordia Golf Trust Deal Gets More Complicated, events driven specialist Travis Lundy revisits this lingering privatisation situation.In ALL: Undemanding Valuation and Good Growth Prospects in Shunned Sector,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB) with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. In ASIAN: Good Performance Has Already Priced In,Country Group downgrade our recommendation to ‘SELL’ from ‘BUY’ with a new target price for 2021E at Bt7.20 (from Bt6.0).

In DELTA: Covid-19 Impact Surprisingly Turned Positive,Country Group maintains a HOLD rating on Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) with a new 2021E target price of Bt84.00, up from Bt56.50.


In SYNEX: Expect Earnings to Grow YoY in 2020 but Has Mostly Priced In, our friends at Country Group revisit Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB) and expect earnings to grow 15%YoY in 2020E amid negative environment in overall spending induced by global widespread of coronavirus. Credit InsightsIn Philippine Bank Asset Quality: Reported Versus Reality and Relative Value, Credit specialist Hank Calenti, CFA revisits the Philippine banks and sees some potentially heightened risks ahead.In Sritex - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,Lucror Analytics Credit Specialist Trung Nguyen reports back on results from Indonesia's leading textile player Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ).In Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,Lucror Analytics Credit Specialist Trung Nguyen comments on results from chicken player Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ).

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Malaysian Politics, Thai Retail, and Indonesian Staples

<p><strong>Rojukiss </strong>(Thailand) distributes its core brand as well as Sis2Sis, PhDerma, and Best Korea, and in our first glance at the company, these are some interesting highlights.</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Ownership and Management. </strong>The largest shareholder Aurora Holdings, which controls almost 40% post-IPO, is controlled by private equity firm Lakeshore. Management includes veterans from L'Oreal, P&amp;G, and Unilever.</li>
<li>
<strong>IPO </strong>is managed by SCB Securities and is good for 166m shares or 27.7% of the total. The proceeds will be used for brand development, foreign expansion, and digital R&amp;D.</li>
<li>
<strong>Business Outlook. </strong>The company's revenues have grown impressively at 38% CAGR (much faster than the industry) and also operates in Cambodia, Indonesia, and Philippines. Arguably the fastest growing serum brand, Rojukiss is active on social media and has strong presence across modern trade, especially pharmacies.</li>
<li>
<strong>Key Risks </strong>include: 1) concentration risk (supplier and customers); 2) consumer behavior change; 3) risks associated to channels; 4) product liability; 5) exchange rate risk; and 6) foreign operational risks.</li>
</ul>

Rojukiss (Thailand) distributes its core brand as well as Sis2Sis, PhDerma, and Best Korea, and in our first glance at the company, these are some interesting highlights.

Ownership and Management. The largest shareholder Aurora Holdings, which controls almost 40% post-IPO, is controlled by private equity firm Lakeshore. Management includes veterans from L'Oreal, P&amp;G, and Unilever.

IPO is managed by SCB Securities and is good for 166m shares or 27.7% of the total. The proceeds will be used for brand development, foreign expansion, and digital R&amp;D.

Business Outlook. The company's revenues have grown impressively at 38% CAGR (much faster than the industry) and also operates in Cambodia, Indonesia, and Philippines. Arguably the fastest growing serum brand, Rojukiss is active on social media and has strong presence across modern trade, especially pharmacies.

Key Risks include: 1) concentration risk (supplier and customers); 2) consumer behavior change; 3) risks associated to channels; 4) product liability; 5) exchange rate risk; and 6) foreign operational risks.


IPO Radar: Rojukiss, a Korean Skincare High-Flyer of the ASEAN Region

Thailand

Rojukiss sells Korean skincare brands Rojukiss and Ascience in Thailand.

Rojukiss (KISS TB)

IPO Radar: Rojukiss Aspires to Become L'Oréal of Thailand

We met up with Rojukiss' entire C-Suite before arriving with our price target of Bt13.5/sh. The company aspires to be the L'Oreal of Thailand and...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Malaysian Politics, Thai Retail, and Indonesian Staples

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

IPO Radar: Rojukiss, a Korean Skincare High-Flyer of the ASEAN Region

Rojukiss (Thailand) distributes its core brand as well as Sis2Sis, PhDerma, and Best Korea, and in our first glance at the company, these are some...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA