Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rorze’s stock price has risen 35% since we became bullish on the stock in August</li>
<li>Q1 sales and operating profits big miss versus analyst consensus due to slowing semicon capex cycle</li>
<li>We would be buying into any stock weakness with an eye on recovery in 2H23 into 2024</li>
</ul>


Rorze’s stock price has risen 35% since we became bullish on the stock in August
Q1 sales and operating profits big miss versus analyst consensus due to slowing semicon capex cycle
We would be buying into any stock weakness with an eye on recovery in 2H23 into 2024


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron up AH as numbers beat handily, but not on what you maybe thought. TP's for Sandisk and Kioxia get doubled but expect more on the follow.</li>
<li>Defense will be in focus after loosing their shine to AI on Trump's Ukraine comments and big Boeing deals in the wings.</li>
<li>Quantum names continue higher and Socionext's 7.5% move Monday should have more to run.</li>
</ul>


Micron up AH as numbers beat handily, but not on what you maybe thought. TP's for Sandisk and Kioxia get doubled but expect more on the follow.
Defense will be in focus after loosing their shine to AI on Trump's Ukraine comments and big Boeing deals in the wings.
Quantum names continue higher and Socionext's 7.5% move Monday should have more to run.


Japan Morning Connection: The US Expands Its Tech Reach, Looking to Aquire 10% of Lithium Americas

<ul>
<li>Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.</li>
<li>The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.</li>
<li>HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.</li>
</ul>


Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

<ul>
<li>Rorze exceeds expectations in FY2/24 with a 6% revenue beat and an 11% surpass in operating profit, setting a record-high revenue of 28 billion yen in 4Q FY2/24.</li>
<li>FY2/25 revenue guidance of 120 billion yen marks a 12% beat against analyst estimates, with operating profit expected to hit 32 billion yen, outperforming expectations by 10%.</li>
<li>Rorze's stock, though no longer deeply undervalued, remains reasonably priced at 16.5x NTM EBIT, indicating strong potential for earnings growth-driven future upside.</li>
</ul>


Rorze exceeds expectations in FY2/24 with a 6% revenue beat and an 11% surpass in operating profit, setting a record-high revenue of 28 billion yen in 4Q FY2/24.
FY2/25 revenue guidance of 120 billion yen marks a 12% beat against analyst estimates, with operating profit expected to hit 32 billion yen, outperforming expectations by 10%.
Rorze's stock, though no longer deeply undervalued, remains reasonably priced at 16.5x NTM EBIT, indicating strong potential for earnings growth-driven future upside.


Rorze (6323) | Outperforming Expectations Despite 200% Share Price Rally

Japan

RORZE CORPORATION manufactures printed circuit board conveyers and wafer handlers for semiconductor manufacturing.  The Company also produces sorters and vacuum chamber robots, as well as controllers and stepping motor drivers used in various automation systems.  Rorze provides parts replacement and repair services for its products.

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Rorze Corp (6323 JP)

Rorze (6323) | Q1 Miss, Buying Opp

Despite Q1 miss versus consensus expectations, we continue to think the stock is well placed to capitalize on the structural demand for...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: The US Expands Its Tech Reach, Looking to Aquire 10% of Lithium Americas

Quantum names continue to do well which may send Socionext even higher. Micron's numbers after hours will add upside to Ibiden. Any pullback in...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

Kokusai Electric had run up versus the SOX Index. Then, Kokusai Electric underperformed the SOX during the selloff. With an early (surprise) index...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rorze (6323) | Q1 Miss, Buying Opp

Despite Q1 miss versus consensus expectations, we continue to think the stock is well placed to capitalize on the structural demand for...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: The US Expands Its Tech Reach, Looking to Aquire 10% of Lithium Americas

Quantum names continue to do well which may send Socionext even higher. Micron's numbers after hours will add upside to Ibiden. Any pullback in...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

Kokusai Electric had run up versus the SOX Index. Then, Kokusai Electric underperformed the SOX during the selloff. With an early (surprise) index...

Brian Freitas

Rorze (6323) | Outperforming Expectations Despite 200% Share Price Rally

​Rorze impresses with record-high revenue and profit in FY2/24, beats analyst estimates for FY2/25 with strong guidance. Stock remains reasonably...

Mark Chadwick

Rorze impresses with record-high revenue and profit in FY2/24, beats analyst estimates for FY2/25 with strong guidance. Stock remains reasonably...