Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>US rates are trapped between inflationary pressures on one hand, and risk aversion and growth uncertainty on the other, with the latter dominating for now.</li>
<li>The previous strong correlation of EM rates with the US has now flipped as they continue to rise even with US rates rallying.</li>
<li>The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high.</li>
</ul>


US rates are trapped between inflationary pressures on one hand, and risk aversion and growth uncertainty on the other, with the latter dominating for now.
The previous strong correlation of EM rates with the US has now flipped as they continue to rise even with US rates rallying.
The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high.


EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion

<ul>
<li>Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it is only a matter of time before the US and other western allies impose a new set of economic sanctions on Russia</li>
<li>A directive from the US Treasury this week expanded the restrictions on Russian bonds as it prohibits participating in the secondary market of new bonds, thereby cutting financing for Russia. </li>
<li>With new sanctions on the way, the risks to Russian bonds have increased. I list the possible risks for holders of Russian bonds under different scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it is only a matter of time before the US and other western allies impose a new set of economic sanctions on Russia
A directive from the US Treasury this week expanded the restrictions on Russian bonds as it prohibits participating in the secondary market of new bonds, thereby cutting financing for Russia. 
With new sanctions on the way, the risks to Russian bonds have increased. I list the possible risks for holders of Russian bonds under different scenarios.


Risks to Russian Bonds from Escalating Sanctions

<ul>
<li>Brazil's rate curve has gone through significant transformations in the past few months, with the curve currently exhibiting a hump in the front end and a kink 3 years out.</li>
<li>The driver behind the hump has been the aggressive rate hikes and the kink is resulting from increasing risk premium in the long end arising from fiscal and election uncertainty.</li>
<li>I expect the kink to get pronounced as more rate cuts get priced with inflation coming off the peak and growth slowing, while risk premium increases heading into the election.</li>
</ul>


Brazil's rate curve has gone through significant transformations in the past few months, with the curve currently exhibiting a hump in the front end and a kink 3 years out.
The driver behind the hump has been the aggressive rate hikes and the kink is resulting from increasing risk premium in the long end arising from fiscal and election uncertainty.
I expect the kink to get pronounced as more rate cuts get priced with inflation coming off the peak and growth slowing, while risk premium increases heading into the election.


A Hump and a Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve

<ul>
<li>With the volatility of US rates remaining elevated, it is a good time to evaluate how my thematic recommendation for 2022 of curve steepening trades in EM is playing out.</li>
<li>The slopes of rate curves in EM have stabilized even as they continue to flatten in the US and, more broadly, DM – a break in correlation that should persist.</li>
<li>EM curves should start steepening as ex-Asia they are ahead of DM in rate-hiking cycles and their worsening debt dynamics should keep the risk premium elevated in the long end.</li>
</ul>


With the volatility of US rates remaining elevated, it is a good time to evaluate how my thematic recommendation for 2022 of curve steepening trades in EM is playing out.
The slopes of rate curves in EM have stabilized even as they continue to flatten in the US and, more broadly, DM – a break in correlation that should persist.
EM curves should start steepening as ex-Asia they are ahead of DM in rate-hiking cycles and their worsening debt dynamics should keep the risk premium elevated in the long end.


An Update on High Conviction 2022 Thematic Rate Curve Steepening Trades in EM

<ul>
<li>In the current environment of upside risks to global rates, it is appropriate to look for countries where one can position for rates to move higher with limited downside.</li>
<li>From this perspective, I like shorting long-end rates in Colombia ahead of the upcoming presidential election in May where a leftist candidate is leading in the polls.</li>
<li>The political risk premium should rise in Colombia using the increase in rates in Peru and Chile last year as guidance since both countries went through similar election-related political turmoil.</li>
</ul>


In the current environment of upside risks to global rates, it is appropriate to look for countries where one can position for rates to move higher with limited downside.
From this perspective, I like shorting long-end rates in Colombia ahead of the upcoming presidential election in May where a leftist candidate is leading in the polls.
The political risk premium should rise in Colombia using the increase in rates in Peru and Chile last year as guidance since both countries went through similar election-related political turmoil.


In an Environment of Rising Rates, Colombia 10y Local Rate Is a Good Short

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RUB 10Y (RRSWM10 CURNCY)

EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion

The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high, given the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Risks to Russian Bonds from Escalating Sanctions

With new sanctions on the way, the risks to Russian bonds have increased. I list the possible risks for holders of Russian bonds under different...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

A Hump and a Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve

I expect the hump and kink in Brazil's curve to get more pronounced as more rate cuts and a higher risk premium is priced, which should lead to a...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

An Update on High Conviction 2022 Thematic Rate Curve Steepening Trades in EM

Revisiting my thematic recommendation for 2022, EM rate curves should start steepening as ex-Asia they are ahead of DM in rate-hiking cycles and...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

In an Environment of Rising Rates, Colombia 10y Local Rate Is a Good Short

I like paying Colombia 10y as the political risk premium should increase going into the presidential election in May based on similar episodes in...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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