Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The semiannual index rebal events of the NIFTY 50 index and NIFTY 100 index will take place near the end of September 2026.</li>
<li>There will be one change for NIFTY 50 index and five changes for NIFTY 100.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our latest flow expectations for the confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The semiannual index rebal events of the NIFTY 50 index and NIFTY 100 index will take place near the end of September 2026.
There will be one change for NIFTY 50 index and five changes for NIFTY 100.
In this insight, we take a look at our latest flow expectations for the confirmed index changes.


Quiddity NIFTY Sep26 Results and Flow Update: 11/12 Correct; ~US$940mn Combined One-Way Flow

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>What will be implication in case of weaker Modi &amp; BJP mandate?</li>
<li>Public Sector and State-Owned Bank Shares Plunge whole day after poor BJP tally during counting.</li>
<li>Improvement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a>'s credit profile by FY25 and Higher RoCE for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


What will be implication in case of weaker Modi &amp; BJP mandate?
Public Sector and State-Owned Bank Shares Plunge whole day after poor BJP tally during counting.
Improvement in Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)'s credit profile by FY25 and Higher RoCE for Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) 


#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>Here we have presented our final expectations for these indices for the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one change for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 (and NIFTY Next 50).</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
Here we have presented our final expectations for these indices for the September 2026 index rebal event.
We see one change for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 (and NIFTY Next 50).


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep26: Final Expectations; ~US$1bn Combined One-Way Flow

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

*Extending The Emergency Funding Plan: The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for Indian SMEs was launched in May 2020 under the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar’ or self-sufficiency package in order to help offset the weakened economic conditions resultant of COVID-19. ECGLS was subsequently expanded in November 2020 to include 26 additional stressed sectors. In its latest attempt at forbearance, the Indian government just expanded its ECLGS from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn; and *Kick That Can: Banks have already on-lent INR 2.7 tn under the ECLGS, and this recent announcement should further allow India to kick the can of stressed loans down the road. We remind the Indian government that if you’re extending, you are pretending.  That said, net new NPL growth should still accelerate through FYE 2022 given what appears to government crisis mismanagement which should extend the duration of the second COVID-19.

*Extending The Emergency Funding Plan: The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for Indian SMEs was launched in May 2020 under the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar’ or self-sufficiency package in order to help offset the weakened economic conditions resultant of COVID-19. ECGLS was subsequently expanded in November 2020 to include 26 additional stressed sectors. In its latest attempt at forbearance, the Indian government just expanded its ECLGS from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn; and *Kick That Can: Banks have already on-lent INR 2.7 tn under the ECLGS, and this recent announcement should further allow India to kick the can of stressed loans down the road. We remind the Indian government that if you’re extending, you are pretending.  That said, net new NPL growth should still accelerate through FYE 2022 given what appears to government crisis mismanagement which should extend the duration of the second COVID-19.

India

REC Limited operates as a financial firm. The Company provides loan assistance to various state and central power utilities, private sector project developers, and state governments for investments in power generation, transmission, distribution, and other system improvement schemes. REC serves clients in India.

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REC (RECL IN)

Quiddity NIFTY Sep26 Results and Flow Update: 11/12 Correct; ~US$940mn Combined One-Way Flow

From 21st August 2026 close to 15th September 2026 close, the ideas suggested in this insight generated an average return of approximately +6%. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep26: Final Expectations; ~US$1bn Combined One-Way Flow

The 6-month reference period for the NIFTY September 2026 index review is from 1st February 2026 to 31st July 2026. This period is over now. These...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: According to the RBI, NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad. This couldn't be further from the truth. NPLs continue to...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Financials – Plop Plop Fizz Fizz

INDIA FINANCIALS: ECLGS was launched in May 2020 to offset poor economic conditions. ECGLS has again been expanded from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn....

Thomas J. Monaco

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Quiddity NIFTY Sep26 Results and Flow Update: 11/12 Correct; ~US$940mn Combined One-Way Flow

From 21st August 2026 close to 15th September 2026 close, the ideas suggested in this insight generated an average return of approximately +6%. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

​Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep26: Final Expectations; ~US$1bn Combined One-Way Flow

The 6-month reference period for the NIFTY September 2026 index review is from 1st February 2026 to 31st July 2026. This period is over now. These...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: According to the RBI, NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad. This couldn't be further from the truth. NPLs continue to...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Financials – Plop Plop Fizz Fizz

INDIA FINANCIALS: ECLGS was launched in May 2020 to offset poor economic conditions. ECGLS has again been expanded from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn....

Thomas J. Monaco

Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...