Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Update on changes to and revisions of analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions</li></ul>

Update on changes to and revisions of analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

Rudi's View: Charter Hall, Droneshield, Pinnacle, WiseTech & More

Ram Essential Services Prope / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A global perspective on what happened overnight</li>
</ul>


A global perspective on what happened overnight


The Overnight Report: FOMO Is Back (Nvidia Too)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

National Storage REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.
Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 4 February and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> will be included.</li>
<li>With this change announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> next week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last year and now trades at higher valuations. We would use price spikes on inclusion to rotate into its peers.</li>
</ul>



Ausnet Services (AST AU) will be deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) after the close of trading on 4 February and Arena Reit (ARF AU) will be included.
With this change announced, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is a high probability inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) next week when Sydney Airport (SYD AU) will be deleted.

Arena Reit (ARF AU) has outperformed its peers over the last year and now trades at higher valuations. We would use price spikes on inclusion to rotate into its peers.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: Arena REIT to Replace Ausnet

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Vitalharvest Freehold Trust / Event-Driven

<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: All references below to Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management (MAFM)'s bumped offer on 23 April should read A$1.24/share instead of A$1.23/share.</strong></em></p>
</div>
<p>Back on the 9 November 2020, orchard landlord <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitalharvest-freehold-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29120:1" rel="noopener">Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02306235-3A554957?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a> an all-cash cash Offer of $1.00/unit from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets, by way of a Scheme. Should the Scheme not be approved by unitholders, MIRA offered to buy all of VTH's assets for A$300mn in cash. The asset sale requires a reduced unitholder approval threshold.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management (MAFM) and VTH subsequently entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02309943_PS-3A555619?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SID</a>,  for A$1.00/unit, which covered both the Scheme and asset sale. Absent a superior Offer, Primewest (19.9%) said it would support MAFM's Offer.</p>
<p>The entry of  Roc Private Equity on the 26 February has lead to a two-month competitive bidding situation, culminating in this morning's Offer of <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02366483-3A565774?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$1.23/share</a> from MAFM.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Below is a timeline of events that subsequently transpired (with insights in bold &amp; italics) since the initial announcement:</p>
</div>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">
<h3>Date</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<h3>Data in the Date</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">9-Nov-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>An all-cash cash Offer of $1.00/unit from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets was <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02306235-3A554957?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a></p>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://skr.ma/wjJLA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Doesn't See A Lemon</a></strong></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">17-Nov-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management (MAFM) and VTH entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02309943_PS-3A555619?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SID</a>,  for A$1.00/unit. The SID covered both the Scheme and asset sale, wherein the distribution was expected to be equivalent under either outcome. Subject to a superior proposal, Primewest (19.9%) said it would support MAFM's Offer.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">1-Feb-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">An agreement was <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02336388-3A560402?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reached</a> whereby MAFM would pay an additional A$0.025/unit from rent received in the first half of the year up to 31 December. The combined value of the distribution - be it under the Scheme or the asset sale - would be A$1.025/unit. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">26-Feb-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">VTH announced a non-binding <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02347268-3A562484?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Offer</a> from Roc Private Equity of A$1.08/unit by way of a Scheme, which also incorporates an asset sale component in a similar vein to that of MAFM's. VTH said it had <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350149-3A563012?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">assessed</a> the proposal and determined that it would be reasonably likely to result in a superior proposal. The unitholder meeting to vote on MAFM's offer, initially to be held on the 4 March, was subsequently postponed.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">11-Mar-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>MAFM <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210311/pdf/44tkfcwkr3hm7c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matched</a> Roc's Offer of A$1.08/unit, plus extended the payment of the A$0.025/unit dividend. </p>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://skr.ma/BcLPi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Ups Its Offer</a></strong></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">18-Mar-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>Roc <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355011-3A563788?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumps</a> its non-binding proposal to A$1.12/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A permitted dividend of A$0.025/unit, similar to that under MAFM's Offer, would be bolted on to that.</p>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://skr.ma/dhdGy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Roc Blinks, And Bumps</a></strong></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">1-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>Roc's A$1.12/share now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02359878-3A564660?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">binding</a>. Matching rights for MAFM triggered.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">7-Apr--21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>MAFM <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02361098-3A564868?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matches</a> at A$1.12/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">8-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>Roc <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02361506-3A564934?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumps</a> its binding proposal to A$1.16/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added. Matching rights for MAFM triggered.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">14-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>MAFM <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02363378-3A565247?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matches</a> at A$1.16/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">15-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>Roc <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02363884-3A565352?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumps</a> its binding proposal to A$1.18/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added. Matching rights for MAFM triggered.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">22-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>MAFM <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02365946-3A565663?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumps</a> to A$1.19/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">22-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>Roc <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02366483-3A565774?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumps</a> its binding proposal to A$1.23/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 73.9881px;">23-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 629.544px;">
<p>MAFM <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02366483-3A565774?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumps</a> to A$1.23/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 724.147px;"><em>Source: ASX </em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>The offer is now up 25.5% (including the dividend) since MAFM's first Offer. Or around A$47mn increase in the deal size.</p>
<div>
<p>This competitive bidding situation looks set to run some more.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>



Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: All references below to Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management (MAFM)'s bumped offer on 23 April should read A$1.24/share instead of A$1.23/share.

Back on the 9 November 2020, orchard landlord Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) received an all-cash cash Offer of $1.00/unit from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets, by way of a Scheme. Should the Scheme not be approved by unitholders, MIRA offered to buy all of VTH's assets for A$300mn in cash. The asset sale requires a reduced unitholder approval threshold.


Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management (MAFM) and VTH subsequently entered into a SID,  for A$1.00/unit, which covered both the Scheme and asset sale. Absent a superior Offer, Primewest (19.9%) said it would support MAFM's Offer.
The entry of  Roc Private Equity on the 26 February has lead to a two-month competitive bidding situation, culminating in this morning's Offer of A$1.23/share from MAFM.


Below is a timeline of events that subsequently transpired (with insights in bold &amp; italics) since the initial announcement:






Date


Data in the Date



9-Nov-21

An all-cash cash Offer of $1.00/unit from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets was announced
Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Doesn't See A Lemon



17-Nov-21
Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management (MAFM) and VTH entered into a SID,  for A$1.00/unit. The SID covered both the Scheme and asset sale, wherein the distribution was expected to be equivalent under either outcome. Subject to a superior proposal, Primewest (19.9%) said it would support MAFM's Offer.


1-Feb-21
An agreement was reached whereby MAFM would pay an additional A$0.025/unit from rent received in the first half of the year up to 31 December. The combined value of the distribution - be it under the Scheme or the asset sale - would be A$1.025/unit. 


26-Feb-21
VTH announced a non-binding Offer from Roc Private Equity of A$1.08/unit by way of a Scheme, which also incorporates an asset sale component in a similar vein to that of MAFM's. VTH said it had assessed the proposal and determined that it would be reasonably likely to result in a superior proposal. The unitholder meeting to vote on MAFM's offer, initially to be held on the 4 March, was subsequently postponed.


11-Mar-21

MAFM matched Roc's Offer of A$1.08/unit, plus extended the payment of the A$0.025/unit dividend. 
Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Ups Its Offer



18-Mar-21

Roc bumps its non-binding proposal to A$1.12/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A permitted dividend of A$0.025/unit, similar to that under MAFM's Offer, would be bolted on to that.
Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Roc Blinks, And Bumps



1-Apr-21

Roc's A$1.12/share now binding. Matching rights for MAFM triggered.



7-Apr--21

MAFM matches at A$1.12/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.



8-Apr-21

Roc bumps its binding proposal to A$1.16/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added. Matching rights for MAFM triggered.



14-Apr-21

MAFM matches at A$1.16/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.



15-Apr-21

Roc bumps its binding proposal to A$1.18/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added. Matching rights for MAFM triggered.



22-Apr-21

MAFM bumps to A$1.19/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.



22-Apr-21

Roc bumps its binding proposal to A$1.23/unit, either via a Scheme or from proceeds from an asset sale. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.



23-Apr-21

MAFM bumps to A$1.23/share. A dividend of A$0.025/unit is also to be permitted and added.



Source: ASX 




The offer is now up 25.5% (including the dividend) since MAFM's first Offer. Or around A$47mn increase in the deal size.

This competitive bidding situation looks set to run some more.


More below the fold.


Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Bumpity Bumpity Berry Bidding

Australia

Rural Funds Group is a real estate property trust which owns Australian agricultural assets.

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Rural Funds (RFF AU)

Rudi's View: Charter Hall, Droneshield, Pinnacle, WiseTech & More

Update on changes to and revisions of analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

FNArena

The Overnight Report: FOMO Is Back (Nvidia Too)

A global perspective on what happened overnight

FNArena

National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement. In this note, we run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

ASX200 Index Rebalance: Arena REIT to Replace Ausnet

Arena REIT will replace Ausnet in the ASX200 at the close on 4 Feb. That should mean Telix Pharma replaces Sydney Airport at the close on 9 Feb....

Brian Freitas

Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Bumpity Bumpity Berry Bidding

Get involved. MAFM's latest Offer is just 13.5% above Roc's initial Offer, or ~A$28mn. I don't see Roc backing down at this stage. And MAFM has the...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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