Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow.</li><li>It almost looked like people forgot about risks, but positioning data has turned a bit at the end of December / start of January, which hints at a risk aversion comeback.</li><li>Could 2024 be the year when asset prices are no longer determined based on interest rates alone?</li></ul>

The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow.It almost looked like people forgot about risks, but positioning data has turned a bit at the end of December / start of January, which hints at a risk aversion comeback.Could 2024 be the year when asset prices are no longer determined based on interest rates alone?

Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 2.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 5.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.4% of the index) was up by 13.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.2% of the index) was up 4.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 1.5%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: VIEW, XOS, SUNW, TPIC, INVZ, RUN, MAXN, COMM, LAZR, AEVA</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 2.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 5.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).Energy Technology (14.4% of the index) was up by 13.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.2% of the index) was up 4.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 1.5%.Top 10 Performers: VIEW, XOS, SUNW, TPIC, INVZ, RUN, MAXN, COMM, LAZR, AEVA

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended December 15, 2023

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.</li>
<li>We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.</li>
<li>We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC</li>
</ul>


The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC


Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.</li>
<li>The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.</li>
</ul>


China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?

The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow. It almost looked...

Steno Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended December 15, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 5.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).

Water Tower Research

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Market remains in a "lockout rally" where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings -- as we...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

China is throwing more liquidity at its real estate sector to save it. Powell is the new top dove while Europe struggles.

Jeroen Blokland