Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

<ul>
<li>EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.</li>
<li>However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.</li>
<li>Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.</li>
</ul>


EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.
However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.
Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.


EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

<ul>
<li>Given events in the Middle East and associated risks for oil prices, we publish a quick guide to the 2024 earnings sensitivity to fuel price increases for the European airlines.</li>
<li>Rising fuel prices pose starkest risk to Lufthansa earnings, and it has just profit warned due to strike costs, which leave it needing a record 2H to meet guidance.</li>
<li>Ryanair is comfortably most insulated given margin and balance sheet strength.</li>
</ul>


Given events in the Middle East and associated risks for oil prices, we publish a quick guide to the 2024 earnings sensitivity to fuel price increases for the European airlines.
Rising fuel prices pose starkest risk to Lufthansa earnings, and it has just profit warned due to strike costs, which leave it needing a record 2H to meet guidance.
Ryanair is comfortably most insulated given margin and balance sheet strength.


European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

<ul>
<li>Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.</li>
<li>This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.</li>
<li>We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.</li>
</ul>


Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.
This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.
We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.


European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Ireland

Ryanair Holdings Plc is an Ireland-based ultra-low-cost airline group, serving as the parent company for several airlines including Buzz, Lauda Europe, Malta Air, Ryanair DAC, and Ryanair UK. It primarily operates short-haul, point-to-point flights across Europe and North Africa, offering low base fares and generating significant ancillary revenue from services like baggage, seating, and partner travel. The company is headquartered in Swords, County Dublin, Ireland, and was founded in 1984.

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Ryanair (0RYA LN)

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

Deep dive on easyJet winter losses and inflation management as pricing growth slows into peak summer months. Record summer in store but more...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

Detailed historical and forward looking analysis on the European airline sector's ability to manage fuel price headwinds/volatility.

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Deep dive on European low cost carrier fare developments into summer 2024 and ramifications for profitability development via detailed earnings...

Neil Glynn

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