US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryanair-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22127:1" rel="noopener">Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID)</a> raised its foreign ownership limit (FOL) from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, due to increasing EU national holdings over the last years.</li>
<li>The security is forecasted to be added to global standard in May and global all-world in September 2025 as it now has eligible foreign room after the FOL increase.</li>
<li>The security's free float is expected to rise from 50% to 80% in stoxx europe 600 and euro stoxx at the June 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID) raised its foreign ownership limit (FOL) from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, due to increasing EU national holdings over the last years.
The security is forecasted to be added to global standard in May and global all-world in September 2025 as it now has eligible foreign room after the FOL increase.
The security's free float is expected to rise from 50% to 80% in stoxx europe 600 and euro stoxx at the June 2025 review.


Ryanair (RYA ID): Global Index Inclusion & EU Upweight Following Raised Foreign Ownership Limit

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.</li>
<li>We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic</li>
<li>This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.</li>
</ul>


We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.
We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic
This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.


European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  </li>
<li>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   </li>
<li>These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)</li>
</ul>


Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   
These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)


Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

<ul>
<li>Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. </li>
<li>​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.</li>
<li>​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.</li>
</ul>


Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. 
​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.
​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.


Ireland

Ryanair Holdings plc provides low fare passenger airline services to destinations in Europe.

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Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID)

Ryanair (RYA ID): Global Index Inclusion & EU Upweight Following Raised Foreign Ownership Limit

Ryanair's FOL increased from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, resulting in eligible foreign room and a forecasted inclusion in global indices for May...

Dimitris Ioannidis

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Deep dive into winter loss-making for the European airline sector, with structural changes due to corporate traffic loss and inflation. These...

Neil Glynn

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Wizz Air - Fitness for 500?

Deep dive on Wizz Air's margin challenges and framing the key concerns management needs to address at its upcoming CMD on 1/2 October

Neil Glynn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Ryanair (RYA ID): Global Index Inclusion & EU Upweight Following Raised Foreign Ownership Limit

Ryanair's FOL increased from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, resulting in eligible foreign room and a forecasted inclusion in global indices for May...

Dimitris Ioannidis

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Deep dive into winter loss-making for the European airline sector, with structural changes due to corporate traffic loss and inflation. These...

Neil Glynn

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

​Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Wizz Air - Fitness for 500?

Deep dive on Wizz Air's margin challenges and framing the key concerns management needs to address at its upcoming CMD on 1/2 October

Neil Glynn

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...