Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.</li>
<li>However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.</li>
<li>Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.</li>
</ul>


EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.
However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.
Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.


EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

<ul>
<li>Given events in the Middle East and associated risks for oil prices, we publish a quick guide to the 2024 earnings sensitivity to fuel price increases for the European airlines.</li>
<li>Rising fuel prices pose starkest risk to Lufthansa earnings, and it has just profit warned due to strike costs, which leave it needing a record 2H to meet guidance.</li>
<li>Ryanair is comfortably most insulated given margin and balance sheet strength.</li>
</ul>


Given events in the Middle East and associated risks for oil prices, we publish a quick guide to the 2024 earnings sensitivity to fuel price increases for the European airlines.
Rising fuel prices pose starkest risk to Lufthansa earnings, and it has just profit warned due to strike costs, which leave it needing a record 2H to meet guidance.
Ryanair is comfortably most insulated given margin and balance sheet strength.


European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

<ul>
<li>Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.</li>
<li>This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.</li>
<li>We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.</li>
</ul>


Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.
This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.
We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.


European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

<ul>
<li>Ryanair trimmed its FY24 (March 2024) net income guidance from €1,850m-€2,050m to €1,850m-€1,950m. We cut our forecast 4% to €1,944m.</li>
<li>Ryanair guidance on summer pricing is encouraging. It sees fares up low-single digit % yoy at this point but expects an improvement as we near the summer.</li>
<li>This commentary follows bullish pricing updates from easyJet, Wizz Air on short haul as well as the US carriers on Transatlantic routes, suggesting strong 2024 pricing on European routes.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair trimmed its FY24 (March 2024) net income guidance from €1,850m-€2,050m to €1,850m-€1,950m. We cut our forecast 4% to €1,944m.
Ryanair guidance on summer pricing is encouraging. It sees fares up low-single digit % yoy at this point but expects an improvement as we near the summer.
This commentary follows bullish pricing updates from easyJet, Wizz Air on short haul as well as the US carriers on Transatlantic routes, suggesting strong 2024 pricing on European routes.


Ryanair - Further Corroboration of Strong Summer Prospects

<ul>
<li>​Early three-month and six-month fare levels largely remain above prior year for the full service carriers (FSCs) and low cost carriers (LCCs)</li>
<li>EasyJet’s 2024 PBT can reach £600m, Ryanair FY25 net income can near-€2.5bn following €2.0bn in FY24, while Wizz Air can exceed €500m net income in FY25.</li>
<li>Wizz has the strongest potential to demonstrate its ability to improve EBITDAR/ASK by managing capacity, which may provide insight into future prospects as operations normalize/developmental routes mature.</li>
</ul>


​Early three-month and six-month fare levels largely remain above prior year for the full service carriers (FSCs) and low cost carriers (LCCs)
EasyJet’s 2024 PBT can reach £600m, Ryanair FY25 net income can near-€2.5bn following €2.0bn in FY24, while Wizz Air can exceed €500m net income in FY25.
Wizz has the strongest potential to demonstrate its ability to improve EBITDAR/ASK by managing capacity, which may provide insight into future prospects as operations normalize/developmental routes mature.


European Airlines - LCCs Unlikely to Pass Through Fuel Tailwinds in 2024

Ireland

Ryanair Holdings plc provides low fare passenger airline services to destinations in Europe.

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Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID)

EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

Deep dive on easyJet winter losses and inflation management as pricing growth slows into peak summer months. Record summer in store but more...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

Detailed historical and forward looking analysis on the European airline sector's ability to manage fuel price headwinds/volatility.

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Deep dive on European low cost carrier fare developments into summer 2024 and ramifications for profitability development via detailed earnings...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Further Corroboration of Strong Summer Prospects

Detailed analysis of Ryanair earnings growth prospects in FY25 to March 2025, and further corroboration of our expectation of strong fares in...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - LCCs Unlikely to Pass Through Fuel Tailwinds in 2024

Deep dive on early 2024 pricing developments and the prospect of the major European low cost carriers retaining fuel price tailwinds in 2024

Neil Glynn

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